Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea
The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Bla...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4441/10/2/221/ 2023-08-20T04:08:33+02:00 Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea Jue Lin-Ye Manuel García-León Vicente Gràcia M. Isabel Ortego Adrian Stanica Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla agris 2018-02-19 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Water; Volume 10; Issue 2; Pages: 221 SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Text 2018 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 2023-07-31T21:23:49Z The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and ... Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation MDPI Open Access Publishing Water 10 2 221 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
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language |
English |
topic |
SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model |
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SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model Jue Lin-Ye Manuel García-León Vicente Gràcia M. Isabel Ortego Adrian Stanica Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
topic_facet |
SWAN storminess climate change climate patterns Black Sea copula generalized additive model |
description |
The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Jue Lin-Ye Manuel García-León Vicente Gràcia M. Isabel Ortego Adrian Stanica Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla |
author_facet |
Jue Lin-Ye Manuel García-León Vicente Gràcia M. Isabel Ortego Adrian Stanica Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla |
author_sort |
Jue Lin-Ye |
title |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_short |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_full |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_fullStr |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea |
title_sort |
multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern black sea |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Water; Volume 10; Issue 2; Pages: 221 |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
221 |
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1774720860312043520 |