Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions
A calibrated conceptual glacio-hydrological monthly water balance model (MWBMglacier) was used to evaluate future changes in water partitioning in a high-latitude glacierized watershed in Southcentral Alaska under future climate conditions. The MWBMglacier was previously calibrated and evaluated aga...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4441/10/2/128/ 2023-08-20T04:06:39+02:00 Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions Melissa Valentin Terri Hogue Lauren Hay agris 2018-01-30 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020128 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Hydrology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10020128 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Water; Volume 10; Issue 2; Pages: 128 climate change mountains snow hydrology hydrologic regime change streamflow generation glacier Alaska Text 2018 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020128 2023-07-31T21:22:16Z A calibrated conceptual glacio-hydrological monthly water balance model (MWBMglacier) was used to evaluate future changes in water partitioning in a high-latitude glacierized watershed in Southcentral Alaska under future climate conditions. The MWBMglacier was previously calibrated and evaluated against streamflow measurements, literature values of glacier mass balance change, and satellite-based observations of snow covered area, evapotranspiration, and total water storage. Output from five global climate models representing two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was used with the previously calibrated parameters to drive the MWBMglacier at 2 km spatial resolution. Relative to the historical period 1949–2009, precipitation will increase and air temperature in the mountains will be above freezing for an additional two months per year by mid-century which significantly impacts snow/rain partitioning and the generation of meltwater from snow and glaciers. Analysis of the period 1949–2099 reveals that numerous hydrologic regime shifts already occurred or are projected to occur in the study area including glacier accumulation area, snow covered area, and forest vulnerability. By the end of the century, Copper River discharge is projected to increase by 48%, driven by 21% more precipitation and 53% more glacial melt water (RCP 8.5) relative to the historical period (1949–2009). Text glacier glaciers Alaska MDPI Open Access Publishing Water 10 2 128 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change mountains snow hydrology hydrologic regime change streamflow generation glacier Alaska |
spellingShingle |
climate change mountains snow hydrology hydrologic regime change streamflow generation glacier Alaska Melissa Valentin Terri Hogue Lauren Hay Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions |
topic_facet |
climate change mountains snow hydrology hydrologic regime change streamflow generation glacier Alaska |
description |
A calibrated conceptual glacio-hydrological monthly water balance model (MWBMglacier) was used to evaluate future changes in water partitioning in a high-latitude glacierized watershed in Southcentral Alaska under future climate conditions. The MWBMglacier was previously calibrated and evaluated against streamflow measurements, literature values of glacier mass balance change, and satellite-based observations of snow covered area, evapotranspiration, and total water storage. Output from five global climate models representing two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was used with the previously calibrated parameters to drive the MWBMglacier at 2 km spatial resolution. Relative to the historical period 1949–2009, precipitation will increase and air temperature in the mountains will be above freezing for an additional two months per year by mid-century which significantly impacts snow/rain partitioning and the generation of meltwater from snow and glaciers. Analysis of the period 1949–2099 reveals that numerous hydrologic regime shifts already occurred or are projected to occur in the study area including glacier accumulation area, snow covered area, and forest vulnerability. By the end of the century, Copper River discharge is projected to increase by 48%, driven by 21% more precipitation and 53% more glacial melt water (RCP 8.5) relative to the historical period (1949–2009). |
format |
Text |
author |
Melissa Valentin Terri Hogue Lauren Hay |
author_facet |
Melissa Valentin Terri Hogue Lauren Hay |
author_sort |
Melissa Valentin |
title |
Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions |
title_short |
Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions |
title_full |
Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions |
title_fullStr |
Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions |
title_sort |
hydrologic regime changes in a high-latitude glacierized watershed under future climate conditions |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020128 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
glacier glaciers Alaska |
genre_facet |
glacier glaciers Alaska |
op_source |
Water; Volume 10; Issue 2; Pages: 128 |
op_relation |
Hydrology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10020128 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020128 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
128 |
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1774717899507761152 |