Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment
The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In t...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4441/10/10/1331/ 2023-08-20T04:09:46+02:00 Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Lamprini V. Papadimitriou Manolis G. Grillakis Ioannis K. Tsanis Klaus Wyser John Caesar Richard A. Betts agris 2018-09-26 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Hydraulics and Hydrodynamics https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Water; Volume 10; Issue 10; Pages: 1331 climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water Text 2018 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 2023-07-31T21:44:57Z The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In this study we examine the implications of different CMIP5-based regional and global climate model ensembles for projections of the hydrological impacts of climate change. We compare results from three different assessments of hydrological impacts under high-end climate change (RCP8.5) across Europe, and we focus on how methodological differences affect the projections. We assess, as systematically as possible, the differences in runoff projections as simulated by a land surface model driven by three different sets of climate projections over the European continent at global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, according to the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. We find that these methodological differences lead to considerably different outputs for a number of indicators used to express different aspects of runoff. We further use a number of new global climate model experiments, with an emphasis on high resolution, to test the assumption that many of the uncertainties in regional climate and hydrological changes are driven predominantly by the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and we find that results are more sensitive to the choice of the atmosphere model compared to the driving SSTs. Finally, we combine all sources of information to identify robust patterns of hydrological changes across the European continent. Text Sea ice MDPI Open Access Publishing Water 10 10 1331 |
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English |
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climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water |
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climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Lamprini V. Papadimitriou Manolis G. Grillakis Ioannis K. Tsanis Klaus Wyser John Caesar Richard A. Betts Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
topic_facet |
climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water |
description |
The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In this study we examine the implications of different CMIP5-based regional and global climate model ensembles for projections of the hydrological impacts of climate change. We compare results from three different assessments of hydrological impacts under high-end climate change (RCP8.5) across Europe, and we focus on how methodological differences affect the projections. We assess, as systematically as possible, the differences in runoff projections as simulated by a land surface model driven by three different sets of climate projections over the European continent at global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, according to the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. We find that these methodological differences lead to considerably different outputs for a number of indicators used to express different aspects of runoff. We further use a number of new global climate model experiments, with an emphasis on high resolution, to test the assumption that many of the uncertainties in regional climate and hydrological changes are driven predominantly by the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and we find that results are more sensitive to the choice of the atmosphere model compared to the driving SSTs. Finally, we combine all sources of information to identify robust patterns of hydrological changes across the European continent. |
format |
Text |
author |
Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Lamprini V. Papadimitriou Manolis G. Grillakis Ioannis K. Tsanis Klaus Wyser John Caesar Richard A. Betts |
author_facet |
Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Lamprini V. Papadimitriou Manolis G. Grillakis Ioannis K. Tsanis Klaus Wyser John Caesar Richard A. Betts |
author_sort |
Aristeidis G. Koutroulis |
title |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_short |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_full |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_fullStr |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_sort |
simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan european assessment |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Water; Volume 10; Issue 10; Pages: 1331 |
op_relation |
Hydraulics and Hydrodynamics https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1331 |
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1774723432575926272 |