Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure
The occurrence of wintertime cold surges (CSs) over East Asia is largely controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) distribution at high latitudes and thermal advection in the lower troposphere. The thermodynamic background state over northeastern Asia is associated with the strength of the Eas...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/9/6/222/ 2023-08-20T04:04:21+02:00 Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure Jin-Woo Heo Chang-Hoi Ho Tae-Won Park Woosuk Choi Jee-Hoon Jeong Jinwon Kim agris 2018-06-10 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060222 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060222 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 9; Issue 6; Pages: 222 cold surge thermal advection East Asian winter monsoon Arctic Oscillation meridional surface air temperature Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 Text 2018 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060222 2023-07-31T21:34:11Z The occurrence of wintertime cold surges (CSs) over East Asia is largely controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) distribution at high latitudes and thermal advection in the lower troposphere. The thermodynamic background state over northeastern Asia is associated with the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon and the variation of Arctic Oscillation. This study assesses the importance of the SAT structure with thermal advection in determining the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia through the analysis of nine atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The historical simulations can reproduce the observed typical characteristics of CS development. On the basis of this model performance, ensemble-averaged future simulations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 project a reduction in CS frequency by 1.1 yr−1 in the late 21st century (2065–2095) compared to the present-day period (1975–2005). The major reason for less frequent CSs in the future is the weakened cold advection, caused by notable SAT warming over the northern part of East Asia. These results suggest that changes in the meridional SAT structure and the associated changes in thermal advection would play a more substantial role than local warming in determining future changes in the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia. Text Arctic MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Atmosphere 9 6 222 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
cold surge thermal advection East Asian winter monsoon Arctic Oscillation meridional surface air temperature Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
spellingShingle |
cold surge thermal advection East Asian winter monsoon Arctic Oscillation meridional surface air temperature Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 Jin-Woo Heo Chang-Hoi Ho Tae-Won Park Woosuk Choi Jee-Hoon Jeong Jinwon Kim Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
topic_facet |
cold surge thermal advection East Asian winter monsoon Arctic Oscillation meridional surface air temperature Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
description |
The occurrence of wintertime cold surges (CSs) over East Asia is largely controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) distribution at high latitudes and thermal advection in the lower troposphere. The thermodynamic background state over northeastern Asia is associated with the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon and the variation of Arctic Oscillation. This study assesses the importance of the SAT structure with thermal advection in determining the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia through the analysis of nine atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The historical simulations can reproduce the observed typical characteristics of CS development. On the basis of this model performance, ensemble-averaged future simulations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 project a reduction in CS frequency by 1.1 yr−1 in the late 21st century (2065–2095) compared to the present-day period (1975–2005). The major reason for less frequent CSs in the future is the weakened cold advection, caused by notable SAT warming over the northern part of East Asia. These results suggest that changes in the meridional SAT structure and the associated changes in thermal advection would play a more substantial role than local warming in determining future changes in the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia. |
format |
Text |
author |
Jin-Woo Heo Chang-Hoi Ho Tae-Won Park Woosuk Choi Jee-Hoon Jeong Jinwon Kim |
author_facet |
Jin-Woo Heo Chang-Hoi Ho Tae-Won Park Woosuk Choi Jee-Hoon Jeong Jinwon Kim |
author_sort |
Jin-Woo Heo |
title |
Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
title_short |
Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
title_full |
Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
title_fullStr |
Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure |
title_sort |
changes in cold surge occurrence over east asia in the future: role of thermal structure |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060222 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 9; Issue 6; Pages: 222 |
op_relation |
Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060222 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060222 |
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Atmosphere |
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9 |
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6 |
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222 |
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