Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom
Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceedin...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/8/10/191/ 2023-08-20T04:08:23+02:00 Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom Michael Sanderson Theo Economou Kate Salmon Sarah Jones agris 2017-09-30 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100191 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Biometeorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100191 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 8; Issue 10; Pages: 191 heat waves UK climate variability logistic regression temperature AMO NAO Text 2017 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100191 2023-07-31T21:14:29Z Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation MDPI Open Access Publishing Atmosphere 8 10 191 |
institution |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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ftmdpi |
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English |
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heat waves UK climate variability logistic regression temperature AMO NAO |
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heat waves UK climate variability logistic regression temperature AMO NAO Michael Sanderson Theo Economou Kate Salmon Sarah Jones Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom |
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heat waves UK climate variability logistic regression temperature AMO NAO |
description |
Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds. |
format |
Text |
author |
Michael Sanderson Theo Economou Kate Salmon Sarah Jones |
author_facet |
Michael Sanderson Theo Economou Kate Salmon Sarah Jones |
author_sort |
Michael Sanderson |
title |
Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom |
title_short |
Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom |
title_full |
Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom |
title_fullStr |
Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom |
title_full_unstemmed |
Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom |
title_sort |
historical trends and variability in heat waves in the united kingdom |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100191 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 8; Issue 10; Pages: 191 |
op_relation |
Biometeorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100191 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100191 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
191 |
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1774720623304507392 |