Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970
This review identifies a critical problem in the fundamental physics of current climate models. The large greenhouse effect of rising CO2 assumed in climate models is assessed by six key observations from ground- and satellite-based measurements. This assessment is enhanced by statistical analyses a...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/14/8/1232/ 2023-08-20T03:59:58+02:00 Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970 Qing-Bin Lu agris 2023-07-31 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081232 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Climatology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081232 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 14; Issue 8; Pages: 1232 physics of climate models radiative forcing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) global warming global cooling Text 2023 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081232 2023-08-01T11:05:51Z This review identifies a critical problem in the fundamental physics of current climate models. The large greenhouse effect of rising CO2 assumed in climate models is assessed by six key observations from ground- and satellite-based measurements. This assessment is enhanced by statistical analyses and model calculations of global or regional mean surface temperature changes by conventional climate models and by a conceptual quantum physical model of global warming due to halogen-containing greenhouse gases (halo-GHGs). The postulated large radiative forcing of CO2 in conventional climate models does not agree with satellite observations. Satellite-observed warming pattern resembles closely the atmospheric distribution of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). This review helps understand recent remarkable observations of reversals from cooling to warming in the lower stratosphere over most continents and in the upper stratosphere at high latitudes, surface warming cessations in the Antarctic, North America, UK, and Northern-Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, and the stabilization in NH or North America snow cover, since the turn of the century. The complementary observation of surface temperature changes in 3 representative regions (Central England, the Antarctic, and the Arctic) sheds new light on the primary mechanism of global warming. These observations agree well with not CO2-based climate models but the CFC-warming quantum physical model. The latter offers parameter-free analytical calculations of surface temperature changes, exhibiting remarkable agreement with observations. These observations overwhelmingly support an emerging picture that halo-GHGs made the dominant contribution to global warming in the late 20th century and that a gradual reversal in warming has occurred since ~2005 due to the phasing out of halo-GHGs. Advances and insights from this review may help humans make rational policies to reverse the past warming and maintain a healthy economy and ecosystem. Text Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Global warming MDPI Open Access Publishing Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic Atmosphere 14 8 1232 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
physics of climate models radiative forcing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) global warming global cooling |
spellingShingle |
physics of climate models radiative forcing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) global warming global cooling Qing-Bin Lu Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970 |
topic_facet |
physics of climate models radiative forcing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) global warming global cooling |
description |
This review identifies a critical problem in the fundamental physics of current climate models. The large greenhouse effect of rising CO2 assumed in climate models is assessed by six key observations from ground- and satellite-based measurements. This assessment is enhanced by statistical analyses and model calculations of global or regional mean surface temperature changes by conventional climate models and by a conceptual quantum physical model of global warming due to halogen-containing greenhouse gases (halo-GHGs). The postulated large radiative forcing of CO2 in conventional climate models does not agree with satellite observations. Satellite-observed warming pattern resembles closely the atmospheric distribution of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). This review helps understand recent remarkable observations of reversals from cooling to warming in the lower stratosphere over most continents and in the upper stratosphere at high latitudes, surface warming cessations in the Antarctic, North America, UK, and Northern-Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, and the stabilization in NH or North America snow cover, since the turn of the century. The complementary observation of surface temperature changes in 3 representative regions (Central England, the Antarctic, and the Arctic) sheds new light on the primary mechanism of global warming. These observations agree well with not CO2-based climate models but the CFC-warming quantum physical model. The latter offers parameter-free analytical calculations of surface temperature changes, exhibiting remarkable agreement with observations. These observations overwhelmingly support an emerging picture that halo-GHGs made the dominant contribution to global warming in the late 20th century and that a gradual reversal in warming has occurred since ~2005 due to the phasing out of halo-GHGs. Advances and insights from this review may help humans make rational policies to reverse the past warming and maintain a healthy economy and ecosystem. |
format |
Text |
author |
Qing-Bin Lu |
author_facet |
Qing-Bin Lu |
author_sort |
Qing-Bin Lu |
title |
Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970 |
title_short |
Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970 |
title_full |
Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970 |
title_fullStr |
Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970 |
title_sort |
critical review on radiative forcing and climate models for global climate change since 1970 |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081232 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 14; Issue 8; Pages: 1232 |
op_relation |
Climatology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081232 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081232 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1232 |
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1774716239368683520 |