A Spatially Detailed Projection of Environmental Conditions in the Arctic Initiated by Climate Change
The environmental conditions of the Arctic are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We focus on the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO). The objective of this study is to project mid-21st century climate-driven changes in the state of climate and the natural environment i...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/14/6/1003/ 2023-08-20T04:03:49+02:00 A Spatially Detailed Projection of Environmental Conditions in the Arctic Initiated by Climate Change Alexander Kislov Ali Alyautdinov Alisa Baranskaya Nataliya Belova Daria Bogatova Marina Vikulina Irina Zheleznova Galina Surkova agris 2023-06-09 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061003 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061003 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 14; Issue 6; Pages: 1003 Arctic warming frosts and thaws avalanches and slush flows mudflows cryogenic landslides erosion suffusion frost heave solifluction thermokarst Text 2023 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061003 2023-08-01T10:25:33Z The environmental conditions of the Arctic are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We focus on the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO). The objective of this study is to project mid-21st century climate-driven changes in the state of climate and the natural environment in the YaNAO. For this purpose, the CMIP6 data models with the climate change scenario SSP5-8.5 were used. Climate change directly affects the statistics of extreme events and climatically driven phenomena, such as frosts and thaws, as well as avalanches and slush flows. Climate change causes changes in the Arctic environment, primarily due to permafrost degradation, leading to important modifications in events such as mudflows, cryogenic landslides, abrasion, erosion, suffusion, frost heave, solifluction, thermokarst, and others. In some cases, the intensity and area of these processes increase, such as heaving processes and thermokarst becoming more active by 2050. In other cases, the solifluction processes decrease in the south part of the YaNAO due to the discontinuous or sporadic permafrost distribution. Projected climatic changes will inevitably lead to the restructuring of the geosystems in YaNAO, creating risks for infrastructure in economically active territories. Text Arctic Climate change nenets Nenets Autonomous Okrug permafrost Thermokarst Yamalo Nenets Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Atmosphere 14 6 1003 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic warming frosts and thaws avalanches and slush flows mudflows cryogenic landslides erosion suffusion frost heave solifluction thermokarst |
spellingShingle |
Arctic warming frosts and thaws avalanches and slush flows mudflows cryogenic landslides erosion suffusion frost heave solifluction thermokarst Alexander Kislov Ali Alyautdinov Alisa Baranskaya Nataliya Belova Daria Bogatova Marina Vikulina Irina Zheleznova Galina Surkova A Spatially Detailed Projection of Environmental Conditions in the Arctic Initiated by Climate Change |
topic_facet |
Arctic warming frosts and thaws avalanches and slush flows mudflows cryogenic landslides erosion suffusion frost heave solifluction thermokarst |
description |
The environmental conditions of the Arctic are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We focus on the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO). The objective of this study is to project mid-21st century climate-driven changes in the state of climate and the natural environment in the YaNAO. For this purpose, the CMIP6 data models with the climate change scenario SSP5-8.5 were used. Climate change directly affects the statistics of extreme events and climatically driven phenomena, such as frosts and thaws, as well as avalanches and slush flows. Climate change causes changes in the Arctic environment, primarily due to permafrost degradation, leading to important modifications in events such as mudflows, cryogenic landslides, abrasion, erosion, suffusion, frost heave, solifluction, thermokarst, and others. In some cases, the intensity and area of these processes increase, such as heaving processes and thermokarst becoming more active by 2050. In other cases, the solifluction processes decrease in the south part of the YaNAO due to the discontinuous or sporadic permafrost distribution. Projected climatic changes will inevitably lead to the restructuring of the geosystems in YaNAO, creating risks for infrastructure in economically active territories. |
format |
Text |
author |
Alexander Kislov Ali Alyautdinov Alisa Baranskaya Nataliya Belova Daria Bogatova Marina Vikulina Irina Zheleznova Galina Surkova |
author_facet |
Alexander Kislov Ali Alyautdinov Alisa Baranskaya Nataliya Belova Daria Bogatova Marina Vikulina Irina Zheleznova Galina Surkova |
author_sort |
Alexander Kislov |
title |
A Spatially Detailed Projection of Environmental Conditions in the Arctic Initiated by Climate Change |
title_short |
A Spatially Detailed Projection of Environmental Conditions in the Arctic Initiated by Climate Change |
title_full |
A Spatially Detailed Projection of Environmental Conditions in the Arctic Initiated by Climate Change |
title_fullStr |
A Spatially Detailed Projection of Environmental Conditions in the Arctic Initiated by Climate Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Spatially Detailed Projection of Environmental Conditions in the Arctic Initiated by Climate Change |
title_sort |
spatially detailed projection of environmental conditions in the arctic initiated by climate change |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061003 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change nenets Nenets Autonomous Okrug permafrost Thermokarst Yamalo Nenets Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change nenets Nenets Autonomous Okrug permafrost Thermokarst Yamalo Nenets Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 14; Issue 6; Pages: 1003 |
op_relation |
Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061003 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061003 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1003 |
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1774714255139930112 |