Sub-Seasonal Prediction of Sea-Gale Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary of China
The sea-gale process (SGP) is a significant and disastrous weather event for the marine industry. However, the sub-seasonal predictability of SGP remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency oscillation on SGP in the Yangtze River estuary from November to April, and...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/14/4/682/ 2023-08-20T04:08:29+02:00 Sub-Seasonal Prediction of Sea-Gale Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary of China Xiao Xie Ping Liang Qiwen Qian agris 2023-04-05 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040682 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040682 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 14; Issue 4; Pages: 682 sea-gale process sub-seasonal prediction low-frequency oscillation forecasting index Text 2023 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040682 2023-08-01T09:34:37Z The sea-gale process (SGP) is a significant and disastrous weather event for the marine industry. However, the sub-seasonal predictability of SGP remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency oscillation on SGP in the Yangtze River estuary from November to April, and its implications for sub-seasonal prediction. We noted that SGPs have a close relationship with the 10~30 day low-frequency component of the 10-m wind speed in the Yangtze River estuary, and typically occur during the peak phase of the low-frequency oscillation. The 10~30 day low-frequency oscillation of 10-m wind was found to be linked to the eastward propagation of extratropical Rossby waves from the North Atlantic across Europe to East Asia. This Rossby wave leads to the low-frequency oscillation of the Siberian high pressure and Japan Sea low pressure, which is indicative of the 10~30 day low-frequency oscillations of the 10-m wind speed in the Yangtze River Estuary. A sea-gale process index (SGPI) was constructed based on the low-frequency oscillation of the Siberian high and the Japan Sea low in order to predict SGPs at the sub-seasonal time scale. Hindcast and real-time forecasts showed that 2/3 of SGPs can be predicted with a leading time of 10~30 days, and that good sub-seasonal predictions of SGPs are connected with strong low-frequency oscillations at the initial forecast time. Therefore, SGPI can be adopted for the sub-seasonal prediction of SGPs in the Yangtze River Estuary. Text North Atlantic MDPI Open Access Publishing Atmosphere 14 4 682 |
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Open Polar |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
sea-gale process sub-seasonal prediction low-frequency oscillation forecasting index |
spellingShingle |
sea-gale process sub-seasonal prediction low-frequency oscillation forecasting index Xiao Xie Ping Liang Qiwen Qian Sub-Seasonal Prediction of Sea-Gale Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary of China |
topic_facet |
sea-gale process sub-seasonal prediction low-frequency oscillation forecasting index |
description |
The sea-gale process (SGP) is a significant and disastrous weather event for the marine industry. However, the sub-seasonal predictability of SGP remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency oscillation on SGP in the Yangtze River estuary from November to April, and its implications for sub-seasonal prediction. We noted that SGPs have a close relationship with the 10~30 day low-frequency component of the 10-m wind speed in the Yangtze River estuary, and typically occur during the peak phase of the low-frequency oscillation. The 10~30 day low-frequency oscillation of 10-m wind was found to be linked to the eastward propagation of extratropical Rossby waves from the North Atlantic across Europe to East Asia. This Rossby wave leads to the low-frequency oscillation of the Siberian high pressure and Japan Sea low pressure, which is indicative of the 10~30 day low-frequency oscillations of the 10-m wind speed in the Yangtze River Estuary. A sea-gale process index (SGPI) was constructed based on the low-frequency oscillation of the Siberian high and the Japan Sea low in order to predict SGPs at the sub-seasonal time scale. Hindcast and real-time forecasts showed that 2/3 of SGPs can be predicted with a leading time of 10~30 days, and that good sub-seasonal predictions of SGPs are connected with strong low-frequency oscillations at the initial forecast time. Therefore, SGPI can be adopted for the sub-seasonal prediction of SGPs in the Yangtze River Estuary. |
format |
Text |
author |
Xiao Xie Ping Liang Qiwen Qian |
author_facet |
Xiao Xie Ping Liang Qiwen Qian |
author_sort |
Xiao Xie |
title |
Sub-Seasonal Prediction of Sea-Gale Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary of China |
title_short |
Sub-Seasonal Prediction of Sea-Gale Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary of China |
title_full |
Sub-Seasonal Prediction of Sea-Gale Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary of China |
title_fullStr |
Sub-Seasonal Prediction of Sea-Gale Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary of China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sub-Seasonal Prediction of Sea-Gale Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary of China |
title_sort |
sub-seasonal prediction of sea-gale processes in the yangtze river estuary of china |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040682 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 14; Issue 4; Pages: 682 |
op_relation |
Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040682 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040682 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
682 |
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1774720765451567104 |