Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors
Landslides along road corridors in Alaska national parks pose threats to public safety, visitor access, subsistence activities, and result in costly remediation of damaged infrastructure. Landslide risk in these areas, which contain near-surface permafrost, is associated with mean annual air tempera...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/14/1/34/ 2023-08-20T04:04:21+02:00 Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors Rick Lader Pamela Sousanes Uma S. Bhatt John E. Walsh Peter A. Bieniek agris 2022-12-24 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010034 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Climatology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010034 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 14; Issue 1; Pages: 34 Arctic change landslide risk regional downscaling Text 2022 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010034 2023-08-01T07:57:33Z Landslides along road corridors in Alaska national parks pose threats to public safety, visitor access, subsistence activities, and result in costly remediation of damaged infrastructure. Landslide risk in these areas, which contain near-surface permafrost, is associated with mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) above freezing and heavy precipitation events. Historical (1981–2020) values of MAAT and summer precipitation (JJA PCPT) from the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Reading, UK) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) were compared to mid-century (2021–2060) and late-century (2061–2100) downscaled climate model projections across Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve (GAAR), Denali National Park and Preserve (DENA), and Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST). ERA5 showed that all locations historically had MAAT values below freezing, but all three parks were warming significantly (0.3–0.6 °C per decade). Observed trends of MAAT from 18 stations showed warming trends with 11 of the 18 being significant at the 95% confidence level using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test. Road corridor values are given for the: (1) proposed Ambler Road through GAAR, (2) Denali Park Road in DENA, and (3) McCarthy Road in WRST. Elevated risk from MAAT was projected in the mid-century period for the Denali Park Road and McCarthy Road and across all three park road corridors in the late-century period; elevated risk from JJA PCPT was projected in all periods for all road corridors. Text Arctic permafrost Alaska MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Kendall ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) McCarthy ENVELOPE(66.543,66.543,-70.404,-70.404) Atmosphere 14 1 34 |
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Open Polar |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic change landslide risk regional downscaling |
spellingShingle |
Arctic change landslide risk regional downscaling Rick Lader Pamela Sousanes Uma S. Bhatt John E. Walsh Peter A. Bieniek Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors |
topic_facet |
Arctic change landslide risk regional downscaling |
description |
Landslides along road corridors in Alaska national parks pose threats to public safety, visitor access, subsistence activities, and result in costly remediation of damaged infrastructure. Landslide risk in these areas, which contain near-surface permafrost, is associated with mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) above freezing and heavy precipitation events. Historical (1981–2020) values of MAAT and summer precipitation (JJA PCPT) from the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Reading, UK) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) were compared to mid-century (2021–2060) and late-century (2061–2100) downscaled climate model projections across Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve (GAAR), Denali National Park and Preserve (DENA), and Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST). ERA5 showed that all locations historically had MAAT values below freezing, but all three parks were warming significantly (0.3–0.6 °C per decade). Observed trends of MAAT from 18 stations showed warming trends with 11 of the 18 being significant at the 95% confidence level using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test. Road corridor values are given for the: (1) proposed Ambler Road through GAAR, (2) Denali Park Road in DENA, and (3) McCarthy Road in WRST. Elevated risk from MAAT was projected in the mid-century period for the Denali Park Road and McCarthy Road and across all three park road corridors in the late-century period; elevated risk from JJA PCPT was projected in all periods for all road corridors. |
format |
Text |
author |
Rick Lader Pamela Sousanes Uma S. Bhatt John E. Walsh Peter A. Bieniek |
author_facet |
Rick Lader Pamela Sousanes Uma S. Bhatt John E. Walsh Peter A. Bieniek |
author_sort |
Rick Lader |
title |
Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors |
title_short |
Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors |
title_full |
Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors |
title_fullStr |
Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors |
title_sort |
climate indicators of landslide risks on alaska national park road corridors |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010034 |
op_coverage |
agris |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) ENVELOPE(66.543,66.543,-70.404,-70.404) |
geographic |
Arctic Kendall McCarthy |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kendall McCarthy |
genre |
Arctic permafrost Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic permafrost Alaska |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 14; Issue 1; Pages: 34 |
op_relation |
Climatology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010034 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010034 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
34 |
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1774714739483475968 |