Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska
The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to offshore oil/gas activities. Foggy Island Bay is one region along the Beaufort Sea coast with planned offshore oil/gas developmen...
Published in: | Atmosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111791 |
id |
ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/13/11/1791/ |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/13/11/1791/ 2023-08-20T04:04:41+02:00 Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska Peter A. Bieniek Li Erikson Jeremy Kasper agris 2022-10-29 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111791 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Climatology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111791 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 13; Issue 11; Pages: 1791 Arctic storms coastal flooding climate change Text 2022 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111791 2023-08-01T07:06:27Z The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to offshore oil/gas activities. Foggy Island Bay is one region along the Beaufort Sea coast with planned offshore oil/gas development that will need to account for the changing climate. High water levels impact infrastructure through coastal erosion and flooding hazards. In this study, 21 high water level events exceeding the top 95th percentile were identified at the gauge in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska (adjacent to Foggy Island Bay) over 1990–2018. All 21 events, and many non-extreme days with elevated water levels, were associated with strong westerly winds according to station records. Storm systems were generally found to be a key driver of westerly winds in the region according to downscaled reanalysis and storm track data. A dynamically downscaled global climate model projection from CMIP5 indicated that days with westerly wind events may become more frequent as storms strengthen and have longer durations by 2100 in the Foggy Island Bay region. Coupled with the anticipated continued decline in sea ice, the northern coast of Alaska may experience more frequent high water events over the next ~80 years. Text Arctic Beaufort Sea Climate change Prudhoe Bay Sea ice Alaska MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Island Bay ENVELOPE(-109.085,-109.085,59.534,59.534) Atmosphere 13 11 1791 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic storms coastal flooding climate change |
spellingShingle |
Arctic storms coastal flooding climate change Peter A. Bieniek Li Erikson Jeremy Kasper Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska |
topic_facet |
Arctic storms coastal flooding climate change |
description |
The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to offshore oil/gas activities. Foggy Island Bay is one region along the Beaufort Sea coast with planned offshore oil/gas development that will need to account for the changing climate. High water levels impact infrastructure through coastal erosion and flooding hazards. In this study, 21 high water level events exceeding the top 95th percentile were identified at the gauge in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska (adjacent to Foggy Island Bay) over 1990–2018. All 21 events, and many non-extreme days with elevated water levels, were associated with strong westerly winds according to station records. Storm systems were generally found to be a key driver of westerly winds in the region according to downscaled reanalysis and storm track data. A dynamically downscaled global climate model projection from CMIP5 indicated that days with westerly wind events may become more frequent as storms strengthen and have longer durations by 2100 in the Foggy Island Bay region. Coupled with the anticipated continued decline in sea ice, the northern coast of Alaska may experience more frequent high water events over the next ~80 years. |
format |
Text |
author |
Peter A. Bieniek Li Erikson Jeremy Kasper |
author_facet |
Peter A. Bieniek Li Erikson Jeremy Kasper |
author_sort |
Peter A. Bieniek |
title |
Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska |
title_short |
Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska |
title_full |
Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska |
title_sort |
atmospheric circulation drivers of extreme high water level events at foggy island bay, alaska |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111791 |
op_coverage |
agris |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-109.085,-109.085,59.534,59.534) |
geographic |
Arctic Island Bay |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Island Bay |
genre |
Arctic Beaufort Sea Climate change Prudhoe Bay Sea ice Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Beaufort Sea Climate change Prudhoe Bay Sea ice Alaska |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 13; Issue 11; Pages: 1791 |
op_relation |
Climatology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111791 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111791 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
1791 |
_version_ |
1774715059572834304 |