Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5
Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave pro...
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Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010025 |
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/13/1/25/ 2023-08-20T04:03:49+02:00 Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 Pavel N. Vargin Sergey V. Kostrykin Evgeni M. Volodin Alexander I. Pogoreltsev Ke Wei agris 2021-12-24 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010025 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Climatology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010025 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 13; Issue 1; Pages: 25 climate change climate modeling stratospheric dynamics planetary waves polar stratospheric clouds ozone layer INM CM5 Text 2021 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010025 2023-08-01T03:39:32Z Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values. Text Arctic Climate change MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Atmosphere 13 1 25 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change climate modeling stratospheric dynamics planetary waves polar stratospheric clouds ozone layer INM CM5 |
spellingShingle |
climate change climate modeling stratospheric dynamics planetary waves polar stratospheric clouds ozone layer INM CM5 Pavel N. Vargin Sergey V. Kostrykin Evgeni M. Volodin Alexander I. Pogoreltsev Ke Wei Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
topic_facet |
climate change climate modeling stratospheric dynamics planetary waves polar stratospheric clouds ozone layer INM CM5 |
description |
Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values. |
format |
Text |
author |
Pavel N. Vargin Sergey V. Kostrykin Evgeni M. Volodin Alexander I. Pogoreltsev Ke Wei |
author_facet |
Pavel N. Vargin Sergey V. Kostrykin Evgeni M. Volodin Alexander I. Pogoreltsev Ke Wei |
author_sort |
Pavel N. Vargin |
title |
Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
title_short |
Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
title_full |
Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5 |
title_sort |
arctic stratosphere circulation changes in the 21st century in simulations of inm cm5 |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010025 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 13; Issue 1; Pages: 25 |
op_relation |
Climatology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010025 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010025 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
25 |
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1774714256288120832 |