Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones
Accurate, reliable estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are a crucial element in the warning and forecast process worldwide, and for the better part of 50 years, estimates made from geostationary satellite observations have been indispensable to forecasters for this purpose. One such method,...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/12/7/830/ 2023-08-20T04:08:24+02:00 Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones William E. Lewis Timothy L. Olander Christopher S. Velden Christopher Rozoff Stefano Alessandrini agris 2021-06-28 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070830 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070830 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 12; Issue 7; Pages: 830 tropical cyclones intensity Dvorak method analog ensemble satellites Text 2021 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070830 2023-08-01T02:03:46Z Accurate, reliable estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are a crucial element in the warning and forecast process worldwide, and for the better part of 50 years, estimates made from geostationary satellite observations have been indispensable to forecasters for this purpose. One such method, the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT), was used to develop analog ensemble (AnEn) techniques that provide more precise estimates of TC intensity with instant access to information on the reliability of the estimate. The resulting methods, ADT-AnEn and ADT-based Error Analog Ensemble (ADTE-AnEn), were trained and tested using seventeen years of historical ADT intensity estimates using k-fold cross-validation with 10 folds. Using only two predictors, ADT-estimated current intensity (maximum wind speed) and TC center latitude, both AnEn techniques produced significant reductions in mean absolute error and bias for all TC intensity classes in the North Atlantic and for most intensity classes in the Eastern Pacific. The ADTE-AnEn performed better for extreme intensities in both basins (significantly so in the Eastern Pacific) and will be incorporated in the University of Wisconsin’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS) workflow for further testing during operations in 2021. Text North Atlantic MDPI Open Access Publishing Pacific Atmosphere 12 7 830 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
tropical cyclones intensity Dvorak method analog ensemble satellites |
spellingShingle |
tropical cyclones intensity Dvorak method analog ensemble satellites William E. Lewis Timothy L. Olander Christopher S. Velden Christopher Rozoff Stefano Alessandrini Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones |
topic_facet |
tropical cyclones intensity Dvorak method analog ensemble satellites |
description |
Accurate, reliable estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are a crucial element in the warning and forecast process worldwide, and for the better part of 50 years, estimates made from geostationary satellite observations have been indispensable to forecasters for this purpose. One such method, the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT), was used to develop analog ensemble (AnEn) techniques that provide more precise estimates of TC intensity with instant access to information on the reliability of the estimate. The resulting methods, ADT-AnEn and ADT-based Error Analog Ensemble (ADTE-AnEn), were trained and tested using seventeen years of historical ADT intensity estimates using k-fold cross-validation with 10 folds. Using only two predictors, ADT-estimated current intensity (maximum wind speed) and TC center latitude, both AnEn techniques produced significant reductions in mean absolute error and bias for all TC intensity classes in the North Atlantic and for most intensity classes in the Eastern Pacific. The ADTE-AnEn performed better for extreme intensities in both basins (significantly so in the Eastern Pacific) and will be incorporated in the University of Wisconsin’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS) workflow for further testing during operations in 2021. |
format |
Text |
author |
William E. Lewis Timothy L. Olander Christopher S. Velden Christopher Rozoff Stefano Alessandrini |
author_facet |
William E. Lewis Timothy L. Olander Christopher S. Velden Christopher Rozoff Stefano Alessandrini |
author_sort |
William E. Lewis |
title |
Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones |
title_short |
Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones |
title_full |
Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones |
title_fullStr |
Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones |
title_sort |
analog ensemble methods for improving satellite-based intensity estimates of tropical cyclones |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070830 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 12; Issue 7; Pages: 830 |
op_relation |
Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070830 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070830 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
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12 |
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7 |
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830 |
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1774720642507079680 |