Ozone Variation Trends under Different CMIP6 Scenarios

• Published in: Atmosphere
• Main Authors: Lin Shang, Jiali Luo, Chunxiao Wang
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2021
• Subjects: stratospheric ozone; tropospheric ozone; trend; CMIP6; Arctic; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010112

This study compares and analyzes simulations of ozone under different scenarios by three CMIP6 models (IPSL-CM6A, MRI-ESM2 and CESM-WACCM). Results indicate that as the social vulnerability and anthropogenic radiative forcing is increasing, the change of total column ozone in the tropical stratosphere is not linear. Compared to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 are more favorable for the increase in stratospheric ozone mass in the tropics. Arctic ozone would never recover under the SSP1-2.6 scenario; however, the Antarctica ozone would gradually recover in all scenarios. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the trend of tropical total column ozone is mainly determined by the trend of column ozone in the tropical troposphere. Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, tropospheric ozone concentration will significantly increase; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, ozone concentration will distinctly increase in the middle and lower troposphere.