Evaluating Satellite Sounding Temperature Observations for Cold Air Aloft Detection
Cold Air Aloft (CAA) can impact commercial flights when cold air descends below 12,192 m (40,000 ft) and temperatures drop dramatically. A CAA event is identified when air temperature falls below −65 °C, which decreases fuel efficiency and poses a safety hazard. This manuscript assesses the performa...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/11/12/1360/ 2023-08-20T04:04:40+02:00 Evaluating Satellite Sounding Temperature Observations for Cold Air Aloft Detection Rebekah Esmaili Nadia Smith Mark Schoeberl Chris Barnet agris 2020-12-15 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121360 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121360 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 11; Issue 12; Pages: 1360 satellite soundings cold air aloft arctic weather natural hazards aviation weather Text 2020 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121360 2023-08-01T00:40:08Z Cold Air Aloft (CAA) can impact commercial flights when cold air descends below 12,192 m (40,000 ft) and temperatures drop dramatically. A CAA event is identified when air temperature falls below −65 °C, which decreases fuel efficiency and poses a safety hazard. This manuscript assesses the performance of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) in detecting CAA events using sounders on polar-orbiting satellites. We compare NUCAPS air temperature profiles with those from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) for January–March 2018. Of 1311 collocated profiles, 236 detected CAA. Our results showed that NUCAPS correctly detects CAA in 48.1% of profiles, while 17.2% are false positives and 34.7% are false negatives. To identify the reason for these detection states, we used a logistic regression trained on NUCAPS diagnostic parameters. We found that cloud cover can impact the skill even at higher vertical levels. This work indicates that a CAA-specific quality flag is feasible and may be useful to help forecasters to diagnose NUCAPS in real-time. Furthermore, the inclusion of an additional sounder data source (e.g., NOAA-20) may increase CAA forecast accuracy. Cloud scenes change rapidly, so additional observations provide more opportunities for correct detection. Text Arctic MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Atmosphere 11 12 1360 |
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Open Polar |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
satellite soundings cold air aloft arctic weather natural hazards aviation weather |
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satellite soundings cold air aloft arctic weather natural hazards aviation weather Rebekah Esmaili Nadia Smith Mark Schoeberl Chris Barnet Evaluating Satellite Sounding Temperature Observations for Cold Air Aloft Detection |
topic_facet |
satellite soundings cold air aloft arctic weather natural hazards aviation weather |
description |
Cold Air Aloft (CAA) can impact commercial flights when cold air descends below 12,192 m (40,000 ft) and temperatures drop dramatically. A CAA event is identified when air temperature falls below −65 °C, which decreases fuel efficiency and poses a safety hazard. This manuscript assesses the performance of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) in detecting CAA events using sounders on polar-orbiting satellites. We compare NUCAPS air temperature profiles with those from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) for January–March 2018. Of 1311 collocated profiles, 236 detected CAA. Our results showed that NUCAPS correctly detects CAA in 48.1% of profiles, while 17.2% are false positives and 34.7% are false negatives. To identify the reason for these detection states, we used a logistic regression trained on NUCAPS diagnostic parameters. We found that cloud cover can impact the skill even at higher vertical levels. This work indicates that a CAA-specific quality flag is feasible and may be useful to help forecasters to diagnose NUCAPS in real-time. Furthermore, the inclusion of an additional sounder data source (e.g., NOAA-20) may increase CAA forecast accuracy. Cloud scenes change rapidly, so additional observations provide more opportunities for correct detection. |
format |
Text |
author |
Rebekah Esmaili Nadia Smith Mark Schoeberl Chris Barnet |
author_facet |
Rebekah Esmaili Nadia Smith Mark Schoeberl Chris Barnet |
author_sort |
Rebekah Esmaili |
title |
Evaluating Satellite Sounding Temperature Observations for Cold Air Aloft Detection |
title_short |
Evaluating Satellite Sounding Temperature Observations for Cold Air Aloft Detection |
title_full |
Evaluating Satellite Sounding Temperature Observations for Cold Air Aloft Detection |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating Satellite Sounding Temperature Observations for Cold Air Aloft Detection |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating Satellite Sounding Temperature Observations for Cold Air Aloft Detection |
title_sort |
evaluating satellite sounding temperature observations for cold air aloft detection |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121360 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 11; Issue 12; Pages: 1360 |
op_relation |
Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121360 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121360 |
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Atmosphere |
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11 |
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12 |
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1360 |
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