The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems
Despite significant, steady improvements in the skill of medium-range weather prediction systems over the past several decades, the accuracy of these forecasts are occasionally very poor. These forecast failures are referred to as “busts” or “dropouts”. The lack of a clear explanation for bust event...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4433/10/11/681/ 2023-08-20T04:04:43+02:00 The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems David B. Parsons Samuel P. Lillo Christopher P. Rattray Peter Bechtold Mark J. Rodwell Connor M. Bruce agris 2019-11-06 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmosphere; Volume 10; Issue 11; Pages: 681 Rossby wave trains meoscale convective systems forecast busts error growth medium-range numerical weather prediction convective parameterization PECAN field campaign Text 2019 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681 2023-07-31T22:46:05Z Despite significant, steady improvements in the skill of medium-range weather prediction systems over the past several decades, the accuracy of these forecasts are occasionally very poor. These forecast failures are referred to as “busts” or “dropouts”. The lack of a clear explanation for bust events limits the development and implementation of strategies designed to reduce their occurrence. This study seeks to explore a flow regime where forecast busts occur over Europe in association with mesoscale convective systems over North America east of the Rocky Mountains. Our investigation focuses on error growth in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF’s) global model during the summer 2015 PECAN (Plains Elevated Convection at Night) experiment. Observations suggest that a close, but varied interrelationship can occur between long-lived, propagating, mesoscale convection systems over the Great Plains and Rossby wave packets. Aloft, the initial error occurs in the ridge of the wave and then propagates downstream as an amplifying Rossby wave packet producing poor forecasts in middle latitudes and, in some cases, the Arctic. Our results suggest the importance of improving the representation of organized deep convection in numerical models, particularly for long-lived mesoscale convective systems that produce severe weather and propagate near the jet stream. Text Arctic MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Atmosphere 10 11 681 |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
Rossby wave trains meoscale convective systems forecast busts error growth medium-range numerical weather prediction convective parameterization PECAN field campaign |
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Rossby wave trains meoscale convective systems forecast busts error growth medium-range numerical weather prediction convective parameterization PECAN field campaign David B. Parsons Samuel P. Lillo Christopher P. Rattray Peter Bechtold Mark J. Rodwell Connor M. Bruce The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems |
topic_facet |
Rossby wave trains meoscale convective systems forecast busts error growth medium-range numerical weather prediction convective parameterization PECAN field campaign |
description |
Despite significant, steady improvements in the skill of medium-range weather prediction systems over the past several decades, the accuracy of these forecasts are occasionally very poor. These forecast failures are referred to as “busts” or “dropouts”. The lack of a clear explanation for bust events limits the development and implementation of strategies designed to reduce their occurrence. This study seeks to explore a flow regime where forecast busts occur over Europe in association with mesoscale convective systems over North America east of the Rocky Mountains. Our investigation focuses on error growth in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF’s) global model during the summer 2015 PECAN (Plains Elevated Convection at Night) experiment. Observations suggest that a close, but varied interrelationship can occur between long-lived, propagating, mesoscale convection systems over the Great Plains and Rossby wave packets. Aloft, the initial error occurs in the ridge of the wave and then propagates downstream as an amplifying Rossby wave packet producing poor forecasts in middle latitudes and, in some cases, the Arctic. Our results suggest the importance of improving the representation of organized deep convection in numerical models, particularly for long-lived mesoscale convective systems that produce severe weather and propagate near the jet stream. |
format |
Text |
author |
David B. Parsons Samuel P. Lillo Christopher P. Rattray Peter Bechtold Mark J. Rodwell Connor M. Bruce |
author_facet |
David B. Parsons Samuel P. Lillo Christopher P. Rattray Peter Bechtold Mark J. Rodwell Connor M. Bruce |
author_sort |
David B. Parsons |
title |
The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems |
title_short |
The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems |
title_full |
The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems |
title_fullStr |
The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems |
title_sort |
role of continental mesoscale convective systems in forecast busts within global weather prediction systems |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Atmosphere; Volume 10; Issue 11; Pages: 681 |
op_relation |
Meteorology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
681 |
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1774715094832250880 |