Inferring Changes in Arctic Sea Ice through a Spatio-Temporal Logistic Autoregression Fitted to Remote-Sensing Data
Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has drawn increasing attention from scientists in recent years because of its fast decline in the Boreal summer and early fall. The measurement of SIE is derived from remote sensing data and is both a lagged and leading indicator of climate change. To characterize at a lo...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2072-4292/14/23/5995/ 2023-08-20T04:03:42+02:00 Inferring Changes in Arctic Sea Ice through a Spatio-Temporal Logistic Autoregression Fitted to Remote-Sensing Data Bohai Zhang Furong Li Huiyan Sang Noel Cressie agris 2022-11-26 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14235995 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Atmospheric Remote Sensing https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14235995 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Remote Sensing; Volume 14; Issue 23; Pages: 5995 boxplot time series climate change dynamic spatio-temporal model reflected solar radiation sea ice extent Text 2022 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14235995 2023-08-01T07:31:45Z Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has drawn increasing attention from scientists in recent years because of its fast decline in the Boreal summer and early fall. The measurement of SIE is derived from remote sensing data and is both a lagged and leading indicator of climate change. To characterize at a local level the decline in SIE, we use remote-sensing data at 25 km resolution to fit a spatio-temporal logistic autoregressive model of the sea-ice evolution in the Arctic region. The model incorporates last year’s ice/water binary observations at nearby grid cells in an autoregressive manner with autoregressive coefficients that vary both in space and time. Using the model-based estimates of ice/water probabilities in the Arctic region, we propose several graphical summaries to visualize the spatio-temporal changes in Arctic sea ice beyond what can be visualized with the single time series of SIE. In ever-higher latitude bands, we observe a consistently declining temporal trend of sea ice in the early fall. We also observe a clear decline in and contraction of the sea ice’s distribution between 70∘N–75∘N, and of most concern is that this may reflect the future behavior of sea ice at ever-higher latitudes under climate change. Text Arctic Climate change Sea ice MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Remote Sensing 14 23 5995 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
boxplot time series climate change dynamic spatio-temporal model reflected solar radiation sea ice extent |
spellingShingle |
boxplot time series climate change dynamic spatio-temporal model reflected solar radiation sea ice extent Bohai Zhang Furong Li Huiyan Sang Noel Cressie Inferring Changes in Arctic Sea Ice through a Spatio-Temporal Logistic Autoregression Fitted to Remote-Sensing Data |
topic_facet |
boxplot time series climate change dynamic spatio-temporal model reflected solar radiation sea ice extent |
description |
Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has drawn increasing attention from scientists in recent years because of its fast decline in the Boreal summer and early fall. The measurement of SIE is derived from remote sensing data and is both a lagged and leading indicator of climate change. To characterize at a local level the decline in SIE, we use remote-sensing data at 25 km resolution to fit a spatio-temporal logistic autoregressive model of the sea-ice evolution in the Arctic region. The model incorporates last year’s ice/water binary observations at nearby grid cells in an autoregressive manner with autoregressive coefficients that vary both in space and time. Using the model-based estimates of ice/water probabilities in the Arctic region, we propose several graphical summaries to visualize the spatio-temporal changes in Arctic sea ice beyond what can be visualized with the single time series of SIE. In ever-higher latitude bands, we observe a consistently declining temporal trend of sea ice in the early fall. We also observe a clear decline in and contraction of the sea ice’s distribution between 70∘N–75∘N, and of most concern is that this may reflect the future behavior of sea ice at ever-higher latitudes under climate change. |
format |
Text |
author |
Bohai Zhang Furong Li Huiyan Sang Noel Cressie |
author_facet |
Bohai Zhang Furong Li Huiyan Sang Noel Cressie |
author_sort |
Bohai Zhang |
title |
Inferring Changes in Arctic Sea Ice through a Spatio-Temporal Logistic Autoregression Fitted to Remote-Sensing Data |
title_short |
Inferring Changes in Arctic Sea Ice through a Spatio-Temporal Logistic Autoregression Fitted to Remote-Sensing Data |
title_full |
Inferring Changes in Arctic Sea Ice through a Spatio-Temporal Logistic Autoregression Fitted to Remote-Sensing Data |
title_fullStr |
Inferring Changes in Arctic Sea Ice through a Spatio-Temporal Logistic Autoregression Fitted to Remote-Sensing Data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Inferring Changes in Arctic Sea Ice through a Spatio-Temporal Logistic Autoregression Fitted to Remote-Sensing Data |
title_sort |
inferring changes in arctic sea ice through a spatio-temporal logistic autoregression fitted to remote-sensing data |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14235995 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Remote Sensing; Volume 14; Issue 23; Pages: 5995 |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Remote Sensing https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14235995 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14235995 |
container_title |
Remote Sensing |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
5995 |
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1774714141716512768 |