Optimizing the Assimilation of the GOES-16/-17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the Hurricane Weather Forecasting (HWRF) Model
Hourly and 15 min GOES-16 and -17 atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are evaluated using the 2020 version of the operational HWRF to assess their impact on tropical cyclone forecasting. The evaluation includes infrared (IR), visible (VIS), shortwave (SWIR), clear air, and cloud top water vapor (CAWV...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2072-4292/14/13/3068/ 2023-08-20T04:08:25+02:00 Optimizing the Assimilation of the GOES-16/-17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the Hurricane Weather Forecasting (HWRF) Model Agnes H. N. Lim Sharon E. Nebuda James A. Jung Jaime M. Daniels Andrew Bailey Wayne Bresky Li Bi Avichal Mehra agris 2022-06-26 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14133068 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14133068 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Remote Sensing; Volume 14; Issue 13; Pages: 3068 data assimilation atmospheric motion vectors HWRF GOES-16 and 17 tropical cyclone forecasting Text 2022 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14133068 2023-08-01T05:30:20Z Hourly and 15 min GOES-16 and -17 atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are evaluated using the 2020 version of the operational HWRF to assess their impact on tropical cyclone forecasting. The evaluation includes infrared (IR), visible (VIS), shortwave (SWIR), clear air, and cloud top water vapor (CAWV and CTWV) AMVs derived from the ABI imagery. Several changes are made to optimize the assimilation of these winds. The observational error profile is inflated to avoid overweighting of the AMVs. The range of allowable AMV wind speeds entering the assimilation system is increased to include larger wind speeds observed in tropical cyclones. Two data quality checks, commonly used for rejecting AMVs, namely QI and PCT1, have been removed. These changes resulted in a 20–40% increase in the number of AMVs assimilated. One additional change, specific to infrared AMVs, is narrowing the atmospheric layer where IR AMVs are rejected from 400–800 hPa to 400–600 hPa. The AMVs’ impact on forecast skill is assessed using storms from the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific, respectively. Overall, GOES-16 and -17 AMVs are beneficial for improving tropical cyclone forecasting. Positive analysis and forecast impact are obtained for track error, intensity error, minimum central pressure error, and storm size. Text North Atlantic MDPI Open Access Publishing Pacific Remote Sensing 14 13 3068 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
data assimilation atmospheric motion vectors HWRF GOES-16 and 17 tropical cyclone forecasting |
spellingShingle |
data assimilation atmospheric motion vectors HWRF GOES-16 and 17 tropical cyclone forecasting Agnes H. N. Lim Sharon E. Nebuda James A. Jung Jaime M. Daniels Andrew Bailey Wayne Bresky Li Bi Avichal Mehra Optimizing the Assimilation of the GOES-16/-17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the Hurricane Weather Forecasting (HWRF) Model |
topic_facet |
data assimilation atmospheric motion vectors HWRF GOES-16 and 17 tropical cyclone forecasting |
description |
Hourly and 15 min GOES-16 and -17 atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are evaluated using the 2020 version of the operational HWRF to assess their impact on tropical cyclone forecasting. The evaluation includes infrared (IR), visible (VIS), shortwave (SWIR), clear air, and cloud top water vapor (CAWV and CTWV) AMVs derived from the ABI imagery. Several changes are made to optimize the assimilation of these winds. The observational error profile is inflated to avoid overweighting of the AMVs. The range of allowable AMV wind speeds entering the assimilation system is increased to include larger wind speeds observed in tropical cyclones. Two data quality checks, commonly used for rejecting AMVs, namely QI and PCT1, have been removed. These changes resulted in a 20–40% increase in the number of AMVs assimilated. One additional change, specific to infrared AMVs, is narrowing the atmospheric layer where IR AMVs are rejected from 400–800 hPa to 400–600 hPa. The AMVs’ impact on forecast skill is assessed using storms from the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific, respectively. Overall, GOES-16 and -17 AMVs are beneficial for improving tropical cyclone forecasting. Positive analysis and forecast impact are obtained for track error, intensity error, minimum central pressure error, and storm size. |
format |
Text |
author |
Agnes H. N. Lim Sharon E. Nebuda James A. Jung Jaime M. Daniels Andrew Bailey Wayne Bresky Li Bi Avichal Mehra |
author_facet |
Agnes H. N. Lim Sharon E. Nebuda James A. Jung Jaime M. Daniels Andrew Bailey Wayne Bresky Li Bi Avichal Mehra |
author_sort |
Agnes H. N. Lim |
title |
Optimizing the Assimilation of the GOES-16/-17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the Hurricane Weather Forecasting (HWRF) Model |
title_short |
Optimizing the Assimilation of the GOES-16/-17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the Hurricane Weather Forecasting (HWRF) Model |
title_full |
Optimizing the Assimilation of the GOES-16/-17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the Hurricane Weather Forecasting (HWRF) Model |
title_fullStr |
Optimizing the Assimilation of the GOES-16/-17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the Hurricane Weather Forecasting (HWRF) Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Optimizing the Assimilation of the GOES-16/-17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the Hurricane Weather Forecasting (HWRF) Model |
title_sort |
optimizing the assimilation of the goes-16/-17 atmospheric motion vectors in the hurricane weather forecasting (hwrf) model |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14133068 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Remote Sensing; Volume 14; Issue 13; Pages: 3068 |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14133068 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14133068 |
container_title |
Remote Sensing |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
3068 |
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1774720661195849728 |