Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans
While forecasts of atmospheric variables, and to a lesser degree ocean circulation, are relatively common, the forecast of biogeochemical conditions is still in its infancy. Using a dynamical ocean biogeochemical forecast forced by seasonal forecasts of atmospheric and physical ocean variables, we p...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2072-4292/13/6/1051/ 2023-08-20T04:08:22+02:00 Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans Cecile S. Rousseaux Watson W. Gregg Lesley Ott agris 2021-03-10 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13061051 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Ocean Remote Sensing https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13061051 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Remote Sensing; Volume 13; Issue 6; Pages: 1051 ocean biogeochemistry seasonal forecast ocean color chlorophyll Text 2021 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13061051 2023-08-01T01:15:07Z While forecasts of atmospheric variables, and to a lesser degree ocean circulation, are relatively common, the forecast of biogeochemical conditions is still in its infancy. Using a dynamical ocean biogeochemical forecast forced by seasonal forecasts of atmospheric and physical ocean variables, we produce seasonal predictions of chlorophyll concentration at the global scale. Results show significant Anomaly Correlation Coefficients (ACCs) for the majority of regions (11 out of the 12 regions for the 1-month lead forecast). Root mean square errors are smaller (<0.05 µg chlorophyll (chl) L−1) in the Equatorial regions compared to the higher latitudes (range from 0.05 up to 0.13 µg chl L−1). The forecast for all regions except three (North Atlantic, South Pacific and North Indian) are within the Semi-Interquartile Range of the satellite chlorophyll concentration (Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP), 27.9%). This suggests the potential for skillful global biogeochemical forecasts on seasonal timescales of chlorophyll, primary production and harmful algal blooms that could support fisheries management and other applications. Text North Atlantic MDPI Open Access Publishing Pacific Indian Remote Sensing 13 6 1051 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
ocean biogeochemistry seasonal forecast ocean color chlorophyll |
spellingShingle |
ocean biogeochemistry seasonal forecast ocean color chlorophyll Cecile S. Rousseaux Watson W. Gregg Lesley Ott Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans |
topic_facet |
ocean biogeochemistry seasonal forecast ocean color chlorophyll |
description |
While forecasts of atmospheric variables, and to a lesser degree ocean circulation, are relatively common, the forecast of biogeochemical conditions is still in its infancy. Using a dynamical ocean biogeochemical forecast forced by seasonal forecasts of atmospheric and physical ocean variables, we produce seasonal predictions of chlorophyll concentration at the global scale. Results show significant Anomaly Correlation Coefficients (ACCs) for the majority of regions (11 out of the 12 regions for the 1-month lead forecast). Root mean square errors are smaller (<0.05 µg chlorophyll (chl) L−1) in the Equatorial regions compared to the higher latitudes (range from 0.05 up to 0.13 µg chl L−1). The forecast for all regions except three (North Atlantic, South Pacific and North Indian) are within the Semi-Interquartile Range of the satellite chlorophyll concentration (Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP), 27.9%). This suggests the potential for skillful global biogeochemical forecasts on seasonal timescales of chlorophyll, primary production and harmful algal blooms that could support fisheries management and other applications. |
format |
Text |
author |
Cecile S. Rousseaux Watson W. Gregg Lesley Ott |
author_facet |
Cecile S. Rousseaux Watson W. Gregg Lesley Ott |
author_sort |
Cecile S. Rousseaux |
title |
Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans |
title_short |
Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans |
title_full |
Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans |
title_sort |
assessing the skills of a seasonal forecast of chlorophyll in the global pelagic oceans |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13061051 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Remote Sensing; Volume 13; Issue 6; Pages: 1051 |
op_relation |
Ocean Remote Sensing https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13061051 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13061051 |
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Remote Sensing |
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13 |
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6 |
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1051 |
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