Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data
An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Ar...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2072-4292/10/2/230/ 2023-10-09T21:47:54+02:00 Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data Ge Peng Jessica Matthews Jason Yu agris 2018-02-02 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10020230 eng eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Remote Sensing in Geology, Geomorphology and Hydrology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs10020230 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Remote Sensing Volume 10 Issue 2 Pages: 230 Arctic sea ice sea ice trend Arctic ice-free projection sensitivity analysis Text 2018 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10020230 2023-09-10T23:55:36Z An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031. Text Arctic Climate change Sea ice MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Remote Sensing 10 2 230 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice sea ice trend Arctic ice-free projection sensitivity analysis |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice sea ice trend Arctic ice-free projection sensitivity analysis Ge Peng Jessica Matthews Jason Yu Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice sea ice trend Arctic ice-free projection sensitivity analysis |
description |
An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031. |
format |
Text |
author |
Ge Peng Jessica Matthews Jason Yu |
author_facet |
Ge Peng Jessica Matthews Jason Yu |
author_sort |
Ge Peng |
title |
Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data |
title_short |
Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data |
title_full |
Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data |
title_sort |
sensitivity analysis of arctic sea ice extent trends and statistical projections using satellite data |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10020230 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Remote Sensing Volume 10 Issue 2 Pages: 230 |
op_relation |
Remote Sensing in Geology, Geomorphology and Hydrology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs10020230 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10020230 |
container_title |
Remote Sensing |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
230 |
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1779310904664391680 |