Variation of Ground Surface Freezing/Thawing Index in China under the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios
As an important parameter in permafrost research, the annual ground surface freezing/thawing index is widely used in the variation of permafrost. In addition, it is also an important indicator in climatology, providing a large amount of theoretical basis for the assessment of climate change. Based o...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2071-1050/14/21/14458/ 2023-08-20T04:09:12+02:00 Variation of Ground Surface Freezing/Thawing Index in China under the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios Xianglong Li Ze Zhang Andrey Melnikov Mingyi Zhang Doudou Jin Jinbang Zhai agris 2022-11-03 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/su142114458 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142114458 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Sustainability; Volume 14; Issue 21; Pages: 14458 China ground surface freezing/thawing index CMIP6 SSP warming scenarios Text 2022 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/su142114458 2023-08-01T07:11:04Z As an important parameter in permafrost research, the annual ground surface freezing/thawing index is widely used in the variation of permafrost. In addition, it is also an important indicator in climatology, providing a large amount of theoretical basis for the assessment of climate change. Based on the ground surface temperature data recorded at 707 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2020, the ground surface freezing/thawing index in China were calculated. The results showed that over the past six decades, the thawing index has shown an upward trend, whereas the freezing index has shown a downward trend, and the trend is stronger around 2000. The results of the R/S-based analysis indicate that the freezing/thawing index will remain on a decreasing/increasing trend for some time to come. Based on the five warming scenarios published by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the spatial–temporal variation characteristics of the ground surface freezing/thawing index in China during 2020–2100 was simulated. It was found that under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the freezing/thawing index may be 0 °C-days in 2080 and 2070, respectively, which may imply that the ground surface freezing process in some regions of China may disappear. Text permafrost MDPI Open Access Publishing Sustainability 14 21 14458 |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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English |
topic |
China ground surface freezing/thawing index CMIP6 SSP warming scenarios |
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China ground surface freezing/thawing index CMIP6 SSP warming scenarios Xianglong Li Ze Zhang Andrey Melnikov Mingyi Zhang Doudou Jin Jinbang Zhai Variation of Ground Surface Freezing/Thawing Index in China under the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios |
topic_facet |
China ground surface freezing/thawing index CMIP6 SSP warming scenarios |
description |
As an important parameter in permafrost research, the annual ground surface freezing/thawing index is widely used in the variation of permafrost. In addition, it is also an important indicator in climatology, providing a large amount of theoretical basis for the assessment of climate change. Based on the ground surface temperature data recorded at 707 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2020, the ground surface freezing/thawing index in China were calculated. The results showed that over the past six decades, the thawing index has shown an upward trend, whereas the freezing index has shown a downward trend, and the trend is stronger around 2000. The results of the R/S-based analysis indicate that the freezing/thawing index will remain on a decreasing/increasing trend for some time to come. Based on the five warming scenarios published by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the spatial–temporal variation characteristics of the ground surface freezing/thawing index in China during 2020–2100 was simulated. It was found that under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the freezing/thawing index may be 0 °C-days in 2080 and 2070, respectively, which may imply that the ground surface freezing process in some regions of China may disappear. |
format |
Text |
author |
Xianglong Li Ze Zhang Andrey Melnikov Mingyi Zhang Doudou Jin Jinbang Zhai |
author_facet |
Xianglong Li Ze Zhang Andrey Melnikov Mingyi Zhang Doudou Jin Jinbang Zhai |
author_sort |
Xianglong Li |
title |
Variation of Ground Surface Freezing/Thawing Index in China under the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios |
title_short |
Variation of Ground Surface Freezing/Thawing Index in China under the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios |
title_full |
Variation of Ground Surface Freezing/Thawing Index in China under the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Variation of Ground Surface Freezing/Thawing Index in China under the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variation of Ground Surface Freezing/Thawing Index in China under the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios |
title_sort |
variation of ground surface freezing/thawing index in china under the cmip6 warming scenarios |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su142114458 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Sustainability; Volume 14; Issue 21; Pages: 14458 |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142114458 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su142114458 |
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Sustainability |
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14 |
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21 |
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14458 |
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