Assessing the Global Pest Risk of Aeolesthes sarta with Regards to the Host Specie Populus alba under Climate Change Scenarios

• Published in: Forests
• Main Authors: Umer Hayat, Sumeet Kour, Muhammad Akram, Juan Shi, Rinto Wiarta
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2023
• Subjects: Aeolesthes sarta; Trirachys sarta; Populus alba; CLIMEX; climate change; A1B–A2 scenarios; ecological niche model; invasive species; forest pest; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/f14061260

Aeolesthes sarta or Trirachys sarta is a polyphagous long-horned beetle that has caused severe damage to the Populus alba forests/plantations in its regions of origin. Climate change could accelerate the introduction and spread of invasive pest species, potentially causing ecological damage and economic losses. Furthermore, globalization and increased trade can inadvertently transport pests across borders into regions where they do not already occur. Hence, it is crucial to identify areas where the climate is most suitable for the establishment of A. sarta’s and which areas of the world are suitable for the growth of P. alba under climate change scenarios. This study employed the CLIMEX model to estimate the potential global distribution of A. sarta and its correlation with its dominant host, P. alba, under current climatic conditions and potential future scenarios, namely the A1B and A2 climate change scenarios (CCSs). Under current climatic conditions, the model indicates that the establishment of a climatically suitable habitat for A. sarta extends beyond its current known range. The model estimated that, under the world’s current climatic conditions, 41.06% of the world can provide suitable areas (EI > 0) for the survival of A. sarta. For P. alba, under the current climatic conditions, suitable regions for the growth of P. alba are present in all continents (excluding Antarctica); under the world’s current climatic conditions, 53.52% of the world can provide suitable areas for the growth of P. alba (EI > 0). Climate change will significantly alter the number of suitable habitats for A. sarta development and P. alba growth globally. In future climatic conditions, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats (EI > 0) for A. sarta will slightly decrease to 40.14% (under A1B and A2 CCSs), while, for P. alba, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats will also marginally decrease to 50.39% (under A1B scenario), and this figure is estimated to drop to 48.41% (under A2 scenario) by ...