Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain

The pine looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) is one of the most common pests feeding on the Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. Pine looper outbreaks show a feature of periodicity and have significant ecological and economic impacts. Climate and weather factors play an important role in pine looper outbreak occ...

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Published in:Forests
Main Authors: Denis A. Demidko, Svetlana M. Sultson, Pavel V. Mikhaylov, Sergey V. Verkhovets
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010015
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spelling ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/1999-4907/13/1/15/ 2023-08-20T04:08:29+02:00 Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain Denis A. Demidko Svetlana M. Sultson Pavel V. Mikhaylov Sergey V. Verkhovets agris 2021-12-22 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010015 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Forest Biodiversity https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f13010015 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Forests; Volume 13; Issue 1; Pages: 15 Bupalus piniaria Scots pine outbreaks prognosis weather climate oscillations Text 2021 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010015 2023-08-01T03:38:08Z The pine looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) is one of the most common pests feeding on the Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. Pine looper outbreaks show a feature of periodicity and have significant ecological and economic impacts. Climate and weather factors play an important role in pine looper outbreak occurrence. We tried to determine what weather conditions precede B. piniaria outbreaks in the southeast of the West Siberian Plain and what climate oscillations cause them. Due to the insufficient duration and incompleteness of documented observations on outbreaks, we used the history of pine looper outbreaks reconstructed using dendrochronological data. Using logistic regression, we found that the factor influencing an outbreak the most is the weather four years before it. A combination of warm spring, dry summer, and cool autumn triggers population growth. Summer weather two years before an outbreak is also critical: humidity higher than the average annual value in summer is favorable for the pine looper. The logistic regression model predicted six out of seven outbreaks that occurred during the period for which weather data are available. We discovered a link between outbreaks and climatic oscillations (mainly for the North Atlantic oscillation, Pacific/North America index, East Atlantic/Western Russia, West Pacific, and Scandinavian patterns). However, outbreak predictions based on the teleconnection patterns turned out to be unreliable. We believe that the complexity of the interaction between large-scale atmospheric processes makes the direct influence of individual oscillations on weather conditions relatively small. Furthermore, climate changes in recent decades modulated atmospheric processes changing the pattern predicting pine looper outbreaks: Autumn became warmer four years before an outbreak, and summer two years before became drier. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation MDPI Open Access Publishing Pacific Forests 13 1 15
institution Open Polar
collection MDPI Open Access Publishing
op_collection_id ftmdpi
language English
topic Bupalus piniaria
Scots pine
outbreaks prognosis
weather
climate oscillations
spellingShingle Bupalus piniaria
Scots pine
outbreaks prognosis
weather
climate oscillations
Denis A. Demidko
Svetlana M. Sultson
Pavel V. Mikhaylov
Sergey V. Verkhovets
Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain
topic_facet Bupalus piniaria
Scots pine
outbreaks prognosis
weather
climate oscillations
description The pine looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) is one of the most common pests feeding on the Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. Pine looper outbreaks show a feature of periodicity and have significant ecological and economic impacts. Climate and weather factors play an important role in pine looper outbreak occurrence. We tried to determine what weather conditions precede B. piniaria outbreaks in the southeast of the West Siberian Plain and what climate oscillations cause them. Due to the insufficient duration and incompleteness of documented observations on outbreaks, we used the history of pine looper outbreaks reconstructed using dendrochronological data. Using logistic regression, we found that the factor influencing an outbreak the most is the weather four years before it. A combination of warm spring, dry summer, and cool autumn triggers population growth. Summer weather two years before an outbreak is also critical: humidity higher than the average annual value in summer is favorable for the pine looper. The logistic regression model predicted six out of seven outbreaks that occurred during the period for which weather data are available. We discovered a link between outbreaks and climatic oscillations (mainly for the North Atlantic oscillation, Pacific/North America index, East Atlantic/Western Russia, West Pacific, and Scandinavian patterns). However, outbreak predictions based on the teleconnection patterns turned out to be unreliable. We believe that the complexity of the interaction between large-scale atmospheric processes makes the direct influence of individual oscillations on weather conditions relatively small. Furthermore, climate changes in recent decades modulated atmospheric processes changing the pattern predicting pine looper outbreaks: Autumn became warmer four years before an outbreak, and summer two years before became drier.
format Text
author Denis A. Demidko
Svetlana M. Sultson
Pavel V. Mikhaylov
Sergey V. Verkhovets
author_facet Denis A. Demidko
Svetlana M. Sultson
Pavel V. Mikhaylov
Sergey V. Verkhovets
author_sort Denis A. Demidko
title Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain
title_short Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain
title_full Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain
title_fullStr Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain
title_full_unstemmed Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain
title_sort influence of weather conditions and climate oscillations on the pine looper bupalus piniaria (l.) outbreaks in the forest-steppe of the west siberian plain
publisher Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
publishDate 2021
url https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010015
op_coverage agris
geographic Pacific
geographic_facet Pacific
genre North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
genre_facet North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
op_source Forests; Volume 13; Issue 1; Pages: 15
op_relation Forest Biodiversity
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f13010015
op_rights https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010015
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