Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems
This paper presents a comprehensive study of winter temperatures in Norway and northern Sweden, covering a period of 50 to 70 years. The analysis utilizes Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to investigate temperature trends at six selected locations. The results demonstrate an overall long-term rise i...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/1996-1073/16/14/5575/ 2023-08-20T04:08:20+02:00 Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems Younes Mohammadi Aleksey Palstev Boštjan Polajžer Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh Davood Khodadad 2023-07-24 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/en16145575 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute B: Energy and Environment https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16145575 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Energies; Volume 16; Issue 14; Pages: 5575 winter temperatures Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) electrical power and energy systems Text 2023 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/en16145575 2023-08-01T10:59:11Z This paper presents a comprehensive study of winter temperatures in Norway and northern Sweden, covering a period of 50 to 70 years. The analysis utilizes Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to investigate temperature trends at six selected locations. The results demonstrate an overall long-term rise in temperatures, which can be attributed to global warming. However, when investigating variations in highest, lowest, and average temperatures for December, January, and February, 50% of the cases exhibit a significant decrease in recent years, indicating colder winters, especially in December. The study also explores the variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variations as a crucial climate factor over the last 15 years, estimating a possible 20% decrease/slowdown within the first half of the 21st century. Subsequently, the study investigates potential similarities between winter AMOC and winter temperatures in the mid to high latitudes over the chosen locations. Additionally, the study examines another important climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and explores possible similarities between the winter NAO index and winter temperatures. The findings reveal a moderate observed lagged correlation for AMOC-smoothed temperatures, particularly in December, along the coastal areas of Norway. Conversely, a stronger lagged correlation is observed between the winter NAO index and temperatures in northwest Sweden and coastal areas of Norway. Thus, NAO may influence both AMOC and winter temperatures (NAO drives both AMOC and temperatures). Furthermore, the paper investigates the impact of colder winters, whether caused by AMOC, NAO, or other factors like winds or sea ice changes, on electrical power and energy systems, highlighting potential challenges such as reduced electricity generation, increased electricity consumption, and the vulnerability of power grids to winter storms. The study concludes by emphasizing the importance of enhancing the knowledge of electrical engineering ... Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northern Sweden Sea ice MDPI Open Access Publishing Norway Energies 16 14 5575 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
winter temperatures Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) electrical power and energy systems |
spellingShingle |
winter temperatures Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) electrical power and energy systems Younes Mohammadi Aleksey Palstev Boštjan Polajžer Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh Davood Khodadad Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems |
topic_facet |
winter temperatures Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) electrical power and energy systems |
description |
This paper presents a comprehensive study of winter temperatures in Norway and northern Sweden, covering a period of 50 to 70 years. The analysis utilizes Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to investigate temperature trends at six selected locations. The results demonstrate an overall long-term rise in temperatures, which can be attributed to global warming. However, when investigating variations in highest, lowest, and average temperatures for December, January, and February, 50% of the cases exhibit a significant decrease in recent years, indicating colder winters, especially in December. The study also explores the variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variations as a crucial climate factor over the last 15 years, estimating a possible 20% decrease/slowdown within the first half of the 21st century. Subsequently, the study investigates potential similarities between winter AMOC and winter temperatures in the mid to high latitudes over the chosen locations. Additionally, the study examines another important climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and explores possible similarities between the winter NAO index and winter temperatures. The findings reveal a moderate observed lagged correlation for AMOC-smoothed temperatures, particularly in December, along the coastal areas of Norway. Conversely, a stronger lagged correlation is observed between the winter NAO index and temperatures in northwest Sweden and coastal areas of Norway. Thus, NAO may influence both AMOC and winter temperatures (NAO drives both AMOC and temperatures). Furthermore, the paper investigates the impact of colder winters, whether caused by AMOC, NAO, or other factors like winds or sea ice changes, on electrical power and energy systems, highlighting potential challenges such as reduced electricity generation, increased electricity consumption, and the vulnerability of power grids to winter storms. The study concludes by emphasizing the importance of enhancing the knowledge of electrical engineering ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Younes Mohammadi Aleksey Palstev Boštjan Polajžer Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh Davood Khodadad |
author_facet |
Younes Mohammadi Aleksey Palstev Boštjan Polajžer Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh Davood Khodadad |
author_sort |
Younes Mohammadi |
title |
Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems |
title_short |
Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems |
title_full |
Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems |
title_fullStr |
Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems |
title_sort |
investigating winter temperatures in sweden and norway: potential relationships with climatic indices and effects on electrical power and energy systems |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/en16145575 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northern Sweden Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northern Sweden Sea ice |
op_source |
Energies; Volume 16; Issue 14; Pages: 5575 |
op_relation |
B: Energy and Environment https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16145575 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/en16145575 |
container_title |
Energies |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
5575 |
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1774720540383117312 |