Is Diversity the Missing Link in Coastal Fisheries Management?
Fisheries management has historically focused on the population elasticity of target fish based primarily on demographic modeling, with the key assumptions of stability in environmental conditions and static trophic relationships. The predictive capacity of this fisheries framework is poor, especial...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/1424-2818/14/2/90/ 2023-08-20T04:06:38+02:00 Is Diversity the Missing Link in Coastal Fisheries Management? Stuart Kininmonth Thorsten Blenckner Susa Niiranen James Watson Alessandro Orio Michele Casini Stefan Neuenfeldt Valerio Bartolino Martin Hansson agris 2022-01-28 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/d14020090 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d14020090 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Diversity; Volume 14; Issue 2; Pages: 90 benthic coupling fisheries modelling Bayesian networks spatially explicit Baltic Sea non-stationary regime shift resilience sustainability Text 2022 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/d14020090 2023-08-01T03:59:28Z Fisheries management has historically focused on the population elasticity of target fish based primarily on demographic modeling, with the key assumptions of stability in environmental conditions and static trophic relationships. The predictive capacity of this fisheries framework is poor, especially in closed systems where the benthic diversity and boundary effects are important and the stock levels are low. Here, we present a probabilistic model that couples key fish populations with a complex suite of trophic, environmental, and geomorphological factors. Using 41 years of observations we model the changes in eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus), and Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus) for the Baltic Sea within a Bayesian network. The model predictions are spatially explicit and show the changes of the central Baltic Sea from cod- to sprat-dominated ecology over the 41 years. This also highlights how the years 2004 to 2014 deviate in terms of the typical cod–environment relationship, with environmental factors such as salinity being less influential on cod population abundance than in previous periods. The role of macrozoobenthos abundance, biotopic rugosity, and flatfish biomass showed an increased influence in predicting cod biomass in the last decade of the study. Fisheries management that is able to accommodate shifting ecological and environmental conditions relevant to biotopic information will be more effective and realistic. Non-stationary modelling for all of the homogeneous biotope regions, while acknowledging that each has a specific ecology relevant to understanding the fish population dynamics, is essential for fisheries science and sustainable management of fish stocks. Text Gadus morhua MDPI Open Access Publishing Diversity 14 2 90 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
benthic coupling fisheries modelling Bayesian networks spatially explicit Baltic Sea non-stationary regime shift resilience sustainability |
spellingShingle |
benthic coupling fisheries modelling Bayesian networks spatially explicit Baltic Sea non-stationary regime shift resilience sustainability Stuart Kininmonth Thorsten Blenckner Susa Niiranen James Watson Alessandro Orio Michele Casini Stefan Neuenfeldt Valerio Bartolino Martin Hansson Is Diversity the Missing Link in Coastal Fisheries Management? |
topic_facet |
benthic coupling fisheries modelling Bayesian networks spatially explicit Baltic Sea non-stationary regime shift resilience sustainability |
description |
Fisheries management has historically focused on the population elasticity of target fish based primarily on demographic modeling, with the key assumptions of stability in environmental conditions and static trophic relationships. The predictive capacity of this fisheries framework is poor, especially in closed systems where the benthic diversity and boundary effects are important and the stock levels are low. Here, we present a probabilistic model that couples key fish populations with a complex suite of trophic, environmental, and geomorphological factors. Using 41 years of observations we model the changes in eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus), and Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus) for the Baltic Sea within a Bayesian network. The model predictions are spatially explicit and show the changes of the central Baltic Sea from cod- to sprat-dominated ecology over the 41 years. This also highlights how the years 2004 to 2014 deviate in terms of the typical cod–environment relationship, with environmental factors such as salinity being less influential on cod population abundance than in previous periods. The role of macrozoobenthos abundance, biotopic rugosity, and flatfish biomass showed an increased influence in predicting cod biomass in the last decade of the study. Fisheries management that is able to accommodate shifting ecological and environmental conditions relevant to biotopic information will be more effective and realistic. Non-stationary modelling for all of the homogeneous biotope regions, while acknowledging that each has a specific ecology relevant to understanding the fish population dynamics, is essential for fisheries science and sustainable management of fish stocks. |
format |
Text |
author |
Stuart Kininmonth Thorsten Blenckner Susa Niiranen James Watson Alessandro Orio Michele Casini Stefan Neuenfeldt Valerio Bartolino Martin Hansson |
author_facet |
Stuart Kininmonth Thorsten Blenckner Susa Niiranen James Watson Alessandro Orio Michele Casini Stefan Neuenfeldt Valerio Bartolino Martin Hansson |
author_sort |
Stuart Kininmonth |
title |
Is Diversity the Missing Link in Coastal Fisheries Management? |
title_short |
Is Diversity the Missing Link in Coastal Fisheries Management? |
title_full |
Is Diversity the Missing Link in Coastal Fisheries Management? |
title_fullStr |
Is Diversity the Missing Link in Coastal Fisheries Management? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Is Diversity the Missing Link in Coastal Fisheries Management? |
title_sort |
is diversity the missing link in coastal fisheries management? |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/d14020090 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Diversity; Volume 14; Issue 2; Pages: 90 |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d14020090 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/d14020090 |
container_title |
Diversity |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
90 |
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