Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps
Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale, a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex (P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual sta...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/1424-2818/12/9/346/ 2023-08-20T04:04:48+02:00 Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps Yann Fragnière Loïc Pittet Benoît Clément Sébastien Bétrisey Emanuel Gerber Michał Ronikier Christian Parisod Gregor Kozlowski agris 2020-09-07 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Biodiversity Conservation https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Diversity; Volume 12; Issue 9; Pages: 346 arctic-alpine flora climate change extinction risk microrefugia narrow endemism Papaver alpinum aggr. screes species distribution modelling Text 2020 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 2023-08-01T00:03:29Z Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale, a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex (P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual status and potential future distribution of species restricted to particular microrefugia. For this study, all known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes). According to our study, there are globally 19 natural populations of P. occidentale, and a total of about 30,000 individuals. The taxon is a highly specialized alpine plant growing in the majority of natural sites between 1900 and 2100 m a.s.l. on north-facing screes. Predictions for the end of the 21st century indicate that a suitable area will significantly decrease (0–30% remaining). Under the most severe climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5), the species risks complete extinction. The long-term in situ conservation of P. occidentale, and all other taxa of the P. alpinum complex, is unlikely to be achieved without slowing global climate change. More generally, our fine-scale study shows that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change in high-mountain flora may be very limited in specialised taxa of patchy environments such as screes. Text Arctic Climate change Global warming MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Diversity 12 9 346 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic-alpine flora climate change extinction risk microrefugia narrow endemism Papaver alpinum aggr. screes species distribution modelling |
spellingShingle |
arctic-alpine flora climate change extinction risk microrefugia narrow endemism Papaver alpinum aggr. screes species distribution modelling Yann Fragnière Loïc Pittet Benoît Clément Sébastien Bétrisey Emanuel Gerber Michał Ronikier Christian Parisod Gregor Kozlowski Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
topic_facet |
arctic-alpine flora climate change extinction risk microrefugia narrow endemism Papaver alpinum aggr. screes species distribution modelling |
description |
Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale, a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex (P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual status and potential future distribution of species restricted to particular microrefugia. For this study, all known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes). According to our study, there are globally 19 natural populations of P. occidentale, and a total of about 30,000 individuals. The taxon is a highly specialized alpine plant growing in the majority of natural sites between 1900 and 2100 m a.s.l. on north-facing screes. Predictions for the end of the 21st century indicate that a suitable area will significantly decrease (0–30% remaining). Under the most severe climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5), the species risks complete extinction. The long-term in situ conservation of P. occidentale, and all other taxa of the P. alpinum complex, is unlikely to be achieved without slowing global climate change. More generally, our fine-scale study shows that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change in high-mountain flora may be very limited in specialised taxa of patchy environments such as screes. |
format |
Text |
author |
Yann Fragnière Loïc Pittet Benoît Clément Sébastien Bétrisey Emanuel Gerber Michał Ronikier Christian Parisod Gregor Kozlowski |
author_facet |
Yann Fragnière Loïc Pittet Benoît Clément Sébastien Bétrisey Emanuel Gerber Michał Ronikier Christian Parisod Gregor Kozlowski |
author_sort |
Yann Fragnière |
title |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_short |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_full |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_fullStr |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_sort |
climate change and alpine screes: no future for glacial relict papaver occidentale (papaveraceae) in western prealps |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
Diversity; Volume 12; Issue 9; Pages: 346 |
op_relation |
Biodiversity Conservation https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 |
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