Known unknowns in an imperfect world:Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models
Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because u...
Published in: | Ecology and Evolution |
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Online Access: | https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/f7cfd196-4e4b-4bef-b8c4-9ffa08b6c68b https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84888384147&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftmacquarieunicr:oai:https://researchers.mq.edu.au:publications/f7cfd196-4e4b-4bef-b8c4-9ffa08b6c68b 2024-09-15T18:04:44+00:00 Known unknowns in an imperfect world:Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models Desprez, Marine Mcmahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Harcourt, Robert Gimenez, Olivier 2013-11 https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/f7cfd196-4e4b-4bef-b8c4-9ffa08b6c68b https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84888384147&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Desprez , M , Mcmahon , C R , Hindell , M A , Harcourt , R & Gimenez , O 2013 , ' Known unknowns in an imperfect world : Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models ' , Ecology and Evolution , vol. 3 , no. 14 , pp. 4658-4668 . https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 article 2013 ftmacquarieunicr https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 2024-07-10T23:45:58Z Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state - recruitment - leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture-recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi-event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi-event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture-recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi-event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy. Article in Journal/Newspaper Elephant Seals Southern Elephant Seals Macquarie University Research Portal Ecology and Evolution 3 14 4658 4668 |
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Macquarie University Research Portal |
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English |
description |
Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state - recruitment - leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture-recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi-event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi-event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture-recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi-event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Desprez, Marine Mcmahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Harcourt, Robert Gimenez, Olivier |
spellingShingle |
Desprez, Marine Mcmahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Harcourt, Robert Gimenez, Olivier Known unknowns in an imperfect world:Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models |
author_facet |
Desprez, Marine Mcmahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Harcourt, Robert Gimenez, Olivier |
author_sort |
Desprez, Marine |
title |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world:Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models |
title_short |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world:Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models |
title_full |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world:Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models |
title_fullStr |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world:Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world:Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models |
title_sort |
known unknowns in an imperfect world:incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/f7cfd196-4e4b-4bef-b8c4-9ffa08b6c68b https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84888384147&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Elephant Seals Southern Elephant Seals |
genre_facet |
Elephant Seals Southern Elephant Seals |
op_source |
Desprez , M , Mcmahon , C R , Hindell , M A , Harcourt , R & Gimenez , O 2013 , ' Known unknowns in an imperfect world : Incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models ' , Ecology and Evolution , vol. 3 , no. 14 , pp. 4658-4668 . https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
4658 |
op_container_end_page |
4668 |
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1810442346091773952 |