Back to the future:using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine mod...
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Online Access: | https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/a307bbe4-21aa-4def-b0e2-356bf6725b1a https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 https://research-management.mq.edu.au/ws/files/109851457/109801739.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85067925592&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT160100029 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/CE170100023 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/SR140300001 |
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ftmacquarieunicr:oai:https://researchers.mq.edu.au:publications/a307bbe4-21aa-4def-b0e2-356bf6725b1a 2024-09-15T17:44:06+00:00 Back to the future:using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie J. Bertler, Nancy A. N. Dixon, Daniel A. England, Mark Favier, Vincent Fogwill, Chris J. Fyfe, John C. Goodwin, Ian Goosse, Hugues Hobbs, Will Jones, Julie M. Keller, Elizabeth D. Khan, Alia L. Phipps, Steven J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Russell, Joellen Sime, Louise Thomas, Elizabeth R. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wainer, Ilana 2019-06 application/pdf https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/a307bbe4-21aa-4def-b0e2-356bf6725b1a https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 https://research-management.mq.edu.au/ws/files/109851457/109801739.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85067925592&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT160100029 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/CE170100023 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/SR140300001 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Bracegirdle , T J , Colleoni , F , Abram , N J , Bertler , N A N , Dixon , D A , England , M , Favier , V , Fogwill , C J , Fyfe , J C , Goodwin , I , Goosse , H , Hobbs , W , Jones , J M , Keller , E D , Khan , A L , Phipps , S J , Raphael , M N , Russell , J , Sime , L , Thomas , E R , van den Broeke , M R & Wainer , I 2019 , ' Back to the future : using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate ' , Geosciences , vol. 9 , no. 6 , 255 , pp. 1-29 . https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections article 2019 ftmacquarieunicr https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 2024-07-03T23:41:10Z Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20 th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21 st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean Macquarie University Research Portal Geosciences 9 6 255 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Macquarie University Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftmacquarieunicr |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie J. Bertler, Nancy A. N. Dixon, Daniel A. England, Mark Favier, Vincent Fogwill, Chris J. Fyfe, John C. Goodwin, Ian Goosse, Hugues Hobbs, Will Jones, Julie M. Keller, Elizabeth D. Khan, Alia L. Phipps, Steven J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Russell, Joellen Sime, Louise Thomas, Elizabeth R. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wainer, Ilana Back to the future:using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
topic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean climate paleoclimate CMIP PMIP projections |
description |
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20 th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21 st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie J. Bertler, Nancy A. N. Dixon, Daniel A. England, Mark Favier, Vincent Fogwill, Chris J. Fyfe, John C. Goodwin, Ian Goosse, Hugues Hobbs, Will Jones, Julie M. Keller, Elizabeth D. Khan, Alia L. Phipps, Steven J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Russell, Joellen Sime, Louise Thomas, Elizabeth R. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wainer, Ilana |
author_facet |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie J. Bertler, Nancy A. N. Dixon, Daniel A. England, Mark Favier, Vincent Fogwill, Chris J. Fyfe, John C. Goodwin, Ian Goosse, Hugues Hobbs, Will Jones, Julie M. Keller, Elizabeth D. Khan, Alia L. Phipps, Steven J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Russell, Joellen Sime, Louise Thomas, Elizabeth R. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wainer, Ilana |
author_sort |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. |
title |
Back to the future:using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_short |
Back to the future:using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_full |
Back to the future:using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_fullStr |
Back to the future:using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Back to the future:using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_sort |
back to the future:using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of antarctic climate |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/a307bbe4-21aa-4def-b0e2-356bf6725b1a https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 https://research-management.mq.edu.au/ws/files/109851457/109801739.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85067925592&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT160100029 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/CE170100023 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/SR140300001 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Bracegirdle , T J , Colleoni , F , Abram , N J , Bertler , N A N , Dixon , D A , England , M , Favier , V , Fogwill , C J , Fyfe , J C , Goodwin , I , Goosse , H , Hobbs , W , Jones , J M , Keller , E D , Khan , A L , Phipps , S J , Raphael , M N , Russell , J , Sime , L , Thomas , E R , van den Broeke , M R & Wainer , I 2019 , ' Back to the future : using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate ' , Geosciences , vol. 9 , no. 6 , 255 , pp. 1-29 . https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 |
container_title |
Geosciences |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
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255 |
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1810491441397366784 |