Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals
Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitat...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Language: | English |
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2017
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Online Access: | https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/2a6ad9b7-598f-4884-8e0a-ccd25f4eaa07 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85023163346&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftmacquarieunicr:oai:https://researchers.mq.edu.au:publications/2a6ad9b7-598f-4884-8e0a-ccd25f4eaa07 2024-10-06T13:42:22+00:00 Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals Hindell, Mark A. Sumner, Michael Bestley, Sophie Wotherspoon, Simon Harcourt, Robert G. Lea, Mary Anne Alderman, Rachael Mcmahon, Clive R. 2017-12 https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/2a6ad9b7-598f-4884-8e0a-ccd25f4eaa07 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85023163346&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Hindell , M A , Sumner , M , Bestley , S , Wotherspoon , S , Harcourt , R G , Lea , M A , Alderman , R & Mcmahon , C R 2017 , ' Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 23 , no. 12 , pp. 5136-5150 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 bio-telemetry climate change environmental variability integrated marine observing system Macquarie Island population trends species distribution models article 2017 ftmacquarieunicr https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 2024-09-26T15:15:55Z Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub-Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 × 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co-variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub-Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer-term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (-1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long-term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seals Macquarie Island Ross Sea Sea ice Southern Elephant Seals Southern Ocean Victoria Land Macquarie University Research Portal Antarctic Ross Sea Southern Ocean The Antarctic Victoria Land Global Change Biology 23 12 5136 5150 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Macquarie University Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftmacquarieunicr |
language |
English |
topic |
bio-telemetry climate change environmental variability integrated marine observing system Macquarie Island population trends species distribution models |
spellingShingle |
bio-telemetry climate change environmental variability integrated marine observing system Macquarie Island population trends species distribution models Hindell, Mark A. Sumner, Michael Bestley, Sophie Wotherspoon, Simon Harcourt, Robert G. Lea, Mary Anne Alderman, Rachael Mcmahon, Clive R. Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
topic_facet |
bio-telemetry climate change environmental variability integrated marine observing system Macquarie Island population trends species distribution models |
description |
Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub-Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 × 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co-variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub-Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer-term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (-1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long-term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hindell, Mark A. Sumner, Michael Bestley, Sophie Wotherspoon, Simon Harcourt, Robert G. Lea, Mary Anne Alderman, Rachael Mcmahon, Clive R. |
author_facet |
Hindell, Mark A. Sumner, Michael Bestley, Sophie Wotherspoon, Simon Harcourt, Robert G. Lea, Mary Anne Alderman, Rachael Mcmahon, Clive R. |
author_sort |
Hindell, Mark A. |
title |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_short |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_full |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_fullStr |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_sort |
decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/2a6ad9b7-598f-4884-8e0a-ccd25f4eaa07 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85023163346&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
geographic |
Antarctic Ross Sea Southern Ocean The Antarctic Victoria Land |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Ross Sea Southern Ocean The Antarctic Victoria Land |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seals Macquarie Island Ross Sea Sea ice Southern Elephant Seals Southern Ocean Victoria Land |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seals Macquarie Island Ross Sea Sea ice Southern Elephant Seals Southern Ocean Victoria Land |
op_source |
Hindell , M A , Sumner , M , Bestley , S , Wotherspoon , S , Harcourt , R G , Lea , M A , Alderman , R & Mcmahon , C R 2017 , ' Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 23 , no. 12 , pp. 5136-5150 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5136 |
op_container_end_page |
5150 |
_version_ |
1812175172948459520 |