Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination
<ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background:</ns4:bold> Industrialised countries had varied responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and how they adapted to new situations and knowledge since it began. These differences in preparedness and policy may lead to different death t...
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ftlshtm:oai:researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk:4664005 2024-09-15T18:14:34+00:00 Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination Kontis, Vasilis Bennett, James E Parks, Robbie M Rashid, Theo Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan Asaria, Perviz Zhou, Bin Guillot, Michel Mathers, Colin D Khang, Young-Ho McKee, Martin Ezzati, Majid 2022-02-15 text https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4664005/ https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4664005/7/Kontis_etal_2022_Lessons-learned-and-lessons-missed.pdf en eng F1000Research https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4664005/7/Kontis_etal_2022_Lessons-learned-and-lessons-missed.pdf Kontis, Vasilis; Bennett, James E; Parks, Robbie M; Rashid, Theo; Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan; Asaria, Perviz; Zhou, Bin; Guillot, Michel; Mathers, Colin D; Khang, Young-Ho; +2 more. McKee, Martin; Ezzati, Majid; (2022) Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination. Wellcome Open Research, 6. p. 279. ISSN 2398-502X DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17253.1 <https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17253.1> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftlshtm https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17253.1 2024-07-09T14:05:32Z <ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background:</ns4:bold> Industrialised countries had varied responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and how they adapted to new situations and knowledge since it began. These differences in preparedness and policy may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 as well as other diseases.<ns4:bold> </ns4:bold></ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Methods: </ns4:bold>We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the impacts of the pandemic on weekly all-cause mortality for 40 industrialised countries from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021, before a large segment of the population was vaccinated in these countries.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Results:</ns4:bold> Over the entire year, an estimated 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) more people died in these countries than would have been expected had the pandemic not happened. This is equivalent to 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people and a 15% (14-17) increase in deaths in all these countries combined. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected if the pandemic had not occurred, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change in mortality. In contrast, the USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced at least 20% higher mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity across countries in the dynamics of excess mortality. The first wave of the pandemic, from mid-February to the end of May 2020, accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus. At the other extreme, the period between mid-September 2020 and mid-February 2021 accounted for over 90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.<ns4:bold> </ns4:bold></ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Conclusions: ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine: LSHTM Research Online Wellcome Open Research 6 279 |
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London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine: LSHTM Research Online |
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language |
English |
description |
<ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background:</ns4:bold> Industrialised countries had varied responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and how they adapted to new situations and knowledge since it began. These differences in preparedness and policy may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 as well as other diseases.<ns4:bold> </ns4:bold></ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Methods: </ns4:bold>We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the impacts of the pandemic on weekly all-cause mortality for 40 industrialised countries from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021, before a large segment of the population was vaccinated in these countries.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Results:</ns4:bold> Over the entire year, an estimated 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) more people died in these countries than would have been expected had the pandemic not happened. This is equivalent to 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people and a 15% (14-17) increase in deaths in all these countries combined. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected if the pandemic had not occurred, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change in mortality. In contrast, the USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced at least 20% higher mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity across countries in the dynamics of excess mortality. The first wave of the pandemic, from mid-February to the end of May 2020, accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus. At the other extreme, the period between mid-September 2020 and mid-February 2021 accounted for over 90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.<ns4:bold> </ns4:bold></ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Conclusions: ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kontis, Vasilis Bennett, James E Parks, Robbie M Rashid, Theo Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan Asaria, Perviz Zhou, Bin Guillot, Michel Mathers, Colin D Khang, Young-Ho McKee, Martin Ezzati, Majid |
spellingShingle |
Kontis, Vasilis Bennett, James E Parks, Robbie M Rashid, Theo Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan Asaria, Perviz Zhou, Bin Guillot, Michel Mathers, Colin D Khang, Young-Ho McKee, Martin Ezzati, Majid Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination |
author_facet |
Kontis, Vasilis Bennett, James E Parks, Robbie M Rashid, Theo Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan Asaria, Perviz Zhou, Bin Guillot, Michel Mathers, Colin D Khang, Young-Ho McKee, Martin Ezzati, Majid |
author_sort |
Kontis, Vasilis |
title |
Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination |
title_short |
Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination |
title_full |
Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination |
title_fullStr |
Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination |
title_full_unstemmed |
Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination |
title_sort |
lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination |
publisher |
F1000Research |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4664005/ https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4664005/7/Kontis_etal_2022_Lessons-learned-and-lessons-missed.pdf |
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Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4664005/7/Kontis_etal_2022_Lessons-learned-and-lessons-missed.pdf Kontis, Vasilis; Bennett, James E; Parks, Robbie M; Rashid, Theo; Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan; Asaria, Perviz; Zhou, Bin; Guillot, Michel; Mathers, Colin D; Khang, Young-Ho; +2 more. McKee, Martin; Ezzati, Majid; (2022) Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination. Wellcome Open Research, 6. p. 279. ISSN 2398-502X DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17253.1 <https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17253.1> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17253.1 |
container_title |
Wellcome Open Research |
container_volume |
6 |
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279 |
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1810452340564557824 |