Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes
© 2016 The Authors. It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Past_and_future_climate_change_in_the_context_of_memorable_seasonal_extremes/9482771 |
id |
ftloughboroughun:oai:figshare.com:article/9482771 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftloughboroughun:oai:figshare.com:article/9482771 2023-05-15T17:34:43+02:00 Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes Tom Matthews Donal Mullan Robert Wilby Ciaran Broderick Conor Murphy 2016-02-04T00:00:00Z https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Past_and_future_climate_change_in_the_context_of_memorable_seasonal_extremes/9482771 unknown 2134/21554 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Past_and_future_climate_change_in_the_context_of_memorable_seasonal_extremes/9482771 CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 CC-BY-NC-ND Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Irish climate change projections Seasonal analogues North Atlantic storminess CMIP5 Extreme seasonal weather Climate change communication Text Journal contribution 2016 ftloughboroughun 2022-01-01T20:12:04Z © 2016 The Authors. It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900-2014) records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995), whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95) and driest summer (1995) has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ~7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ~8 and ~10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Loughborough University: Figshare |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Loughborough University: Figshare |
op_collection_id |
ftloughboroughun |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Irish climate change projections Seasonal analogues North Atlantic storminess CMIP5 Extreme seasonal weather Climate change communication |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Irish climate change projections Seasonal analogues North Atlantic storminess CMIP5 Extreme seasonal weather Climate change communication Tom Matthews Donal Mullan Robert Wilby Ciaran Broderick Conor Murphy Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified Irish climate change projections Seasonal analogues North Atlantic storminess CMIP5 Extreme seasonal weather Climate change communication |
description |
© 2016 The Authors. It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900-2014) records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995), whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95) and driest summer (1995) has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ~7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ~8 and ~10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tom Matthews Donal Mullan Robert Wilby Ciaran Broderick Conor Murphy |
author_facet |
Tom Matthews Donal Mullan Robert Wilby Ciaran Broderick Conor Murphy |
author_sort |
Tom Matthews |
title |
Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes |
title_short |
Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes |
title_full |
Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes |
title_fullStr |
Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes |
title_sort |
past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Past_and_future_climate_change_in_the_context_of_memorable_seasonal_extremes/9482771 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
2134/21554 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Past_and_future_climate_change_in_the_context_of_memorable_seasonal_extremes/9482771 |
op_rights |
CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
_version_ |
1766133645790150656 |