Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities
© 2020 Policy and investment decisions in developing clean energy strategies for remote communities are subject to multiple uncertainties that impact overall strategy outcomes, including those related to environmental emissions and energy costs. In this context, robust modeling approaches are requir...
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ftloughboroughun:oai:figshare.com:article/13514296 2023-05-15T15:15:23+02:00 Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities MR Quitoras P Cabrera PE Campana Paul Rowley C Crawford 2020-12-16T00:00:00Z https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Towards_robust_investment_decisions_and_policies_in_integrated_energy_systems_planning_Evaluating_trade-offs_and_risk_hedging_strategies_for_remote_communities/13514296 unknown 2134/13514296.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Towards_robust_investment_decisions_and_policies_in_integrated_energy_systems_planning_Evaluating_trade-offs_and_risk_hedging_strategies_for_remote_communities/13514296 CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 CC-BY-NC-ND Mechanical Engineering Energy Electrical and Electronic Engineering Energy sovereignty Indigenous peoples Risk hedging strategies Uncertainty Robust optimization Energy policy Text Journal contribution 2020 ftloughboroughun 2022-01-01T19:15:29Z © 2020 Policy and investment decisions in developing clean energy strategies for remote communities are subject to multiple uncertainties that impact overall strategy outcomes, including those related to environmental emissions and energy costs. In this context, robust modeling approaches are required that can clarify potential outcomes while subject to such uncertainties. This work introduces a novel modeling framework that enables enhanced decision making in energy systems planning for remote communities, which for the first time takes into account context-specific decision-maker attitudes towards multiple inter-related uncertainties and various energy solution philosophies. In particular, multiple energy system configurations are evaluated by simultaneously minimizing the levelised cost of energy and fuel consumption, with a test case for a specific community in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The concept of model robustness and validity together with the stochastic nature of uncertain parameters are combined in a multi-objective optimization framework that elucidates the full spectrum of energy solutions available in such a remote Arctic context. Introducing known uncertainties in renewable energy characteristics was found to reduce overall energy yields from the renewable energy technologies. Specifically, the deterministic renewable energy penetration of 69% from a specific energy system configuration reduced to a mean of 51% after the inclusion of uncertainties via probabilistic simulation. Conversely, diesel fuel consumption increased to 750,000 L/yr (mean) from its initial deterministic value of 447,470 L/yr. Holistic energy solutions which include both supply and demand-side considerations are also analyzed. Specifically, a reduced community domestic heating load of 40% was achieved via retrofit of high performance building fabric enclosures evaluated in conjunction with renewable energy supply options. Ultimately, insights and real-world applications have been synthesized to provide coherent ... Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper Arctic Northwest Territories Loughborough University: Figshare Arctic Canada Northwest Territories |
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Loughborough University: Figshare |
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ftloughboroughun |
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topic |
Mechanical Engineering Energy Electrical and Electronic Engineering Energy sovereignty Indigenous peoples Risk hedging strategies Uncertainty Robust optimization Energy policy |
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Mechanical Engineering Energy Electrical and Electronic Engineering Energy sovereignty Indigenous peoples Risk hedging strategies Uncertainty Robust optimization Energy policy MR Quitoras P Cabrera PE Campana Paul Rowley C Crawford Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
topic_facet |
Mechanical Engineering Energy Electrical and Electronic Engineering Energy sovereignty Indigenous peoples Risk hedging strategies Uncertainty Robust optimization Energy policy |
description |
© 2020 Policy and investment decisions in developing clean energy strategies for remote communities are subject to multiple uncertainties that impact overall strategy outcomes, including those related to environmental emissions and energy costs. In this context, robust modeling approaches are required that can clarify potential outcomes while subject to such uncertainties. This work introduces a novel modeling framework that enables enhanced decision making in energy systems planning for remote communities, which for the first time takes into account context-specific decision-maker attitudes towards multiple inter-related uncertainties and various energy solution philosophies. In particular, multiple energy system configurations are evaluated by simultaneously minimizing the levelised cost of energy and fuel consumption, with a test case for a specific community in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The concept of model robustness and validity together with the stochastic nature of uncertain parameters are combined in a multi-objective optimization framework that elucidates the full spectrum of energy solutions available in such a remote Arctic context. Introducing known uncertainties in renewable energy characteristics was found to reduce overall energy yields from the renewable energy technologies. Specifically, the deterministic renewable energy penetration of 69% from a specific energy system configuration reduced to a mean of 51% after the inclusion of uncertainties via probabilistic simulation. Conversely, diesel fuel consumption increased to 750,000 L/yr (mean) from its initial deterministic value of 447,470 L/yr. Holistic energy solutions which include both supply and demand-side considerations are also analyzed. Specifically, a reduced community domestic heating load of 40% was achieved via retrofit of high performance building fabric enclosures evaluated in conjunction with renewable energy supply options. Ultimately, insights and real-world applications have been synthesized to provide coherent ... |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
MR Quitoras P Cabrera PE Campana Paul Rowley C Crawford |
author_facet |
MR Quitoras P Cabrera PE Campana Paul Rowley C Crawford |
author_sort |
MR Quitoras |
title |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_short |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_full |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_fullStr |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_sort |
towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Towards_robust_investment_decisions_and_policies_in_integrated_energy_systems_planning_Evaluating_trade-offs_and_risk_hedging_strategies_for_remote_communities/13514296 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Northwest Territories |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Northwest Territories |
genre |
Arctic Northwest Territories |
genre_facet |
Arctic Northwest Territories |
op_relation |
2134/13514296.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Towards_robust_investment_decisions_and_policies_in_integrated_energy_systems_planning_Evaluating_trade-offs_and_risk_hedging_strategies_for_remote_communities/13514296 |
op_rights |
CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
_version_ |
1766345756535422976 |