Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Droughts are one of the world’s most destructive natural disasters. In large regions of Africa, droughts can have strong environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the mechanism that drives drought and predicting its variability is important for enhancing early warning and disaster risk...
Published in: | Remote Sensing |
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MDPI
2021
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Online Access: | https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/item/8yx01 https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/download/2d978f3017de1f24c623b89add0c39b4f2c8efd2caeeb120469ab53a16566e10/6489085/remotesensing-13-04730-v2.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234730 |
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ftlondsouthbanku:oai:openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk:8yx01 2024-09-15T18:24:25+00:00 Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Henchiri, M. Igbawua, T. Javed, T. Bai, Y. Zhang, S. Essifi, B. Ujoh, F. Zhang, J. 2021 application/pdf https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/item/8yx01 https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/download/2d978f3017de1f24c623b89add0c39b4f2c8efd2caeeb120469ab53a16566e10/6489085/remotesensing-13-04730-v2.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234730 unknown MDPI https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/download/2d978f3017de1f24c623b89add0c39b4f2c8efd2caeeb120469ab53a16566e10/6489085/remotesensing-13-04730-v2.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234730 Henchiri, M., Igbawua, T., Javed, T., Bai, Y., Zhang, S., Essifi, B., Ujoh, F. and Zhang, J. (2021). Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Remote Sensing. 13 (23), p. e4730. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234730 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC BY 4.0 ENSO JPDF meteorological drought North and West Africa return periods SPI journal-article PeerReviewed 2021 ftlondsouthbanku https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234730 2024-07-22T03:21:54Z Droughts are one of the world’s most destructive natural disasters. In large regions of Africa, droughts can have strong environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the mechanism that drives drought and predicting its variability is important for enhancing early warning and disaster risk management. Taking North and West Africa as the study area, this study adopted multi-source data and various statistical analysis methods, such as the joint probability density function (JPDF), to study the meteorological drought and return years across a long term (1982−2018). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to evaluate the large-scale spatiotemporal drought characteristics at 1−12-month timescales. The intensity, severity, and duration of drought in the study area were evaluated using SPI−12. At the same time, the JPDF was used to determine the return year and identify the intensity, duration, and severity of drought. The Mann-Kendall method was used to test the trend of SPI and annual precipitation at 1−12-month timescales. The pattern of drought occurrence and its correlation with climate factors were analyzed. The results showed that the drought magnitude (DM) of the study area was the highest in 2008−2010, 2000−2003, and 1984−1987, with the values of 5.361, 2.792, and 2.187, respectively, and the drought lasting for three years in each of the three periods. At the same time, the lowest DM was found in 1997−1998, 1993−1994, and 1991−1992, with DM values of 0.113, 0.658, and 0.727, respectively, with a duration of one year each time. It was confirmed that the probability of return to drought was higher when the duration of drought was shorter, with short droughts occurring more regularly, but not all severe droughts hit after longer time intervals. Beyond this, we discovered a direct connection between drought and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) over Morocco, Algeria, and the sub-Saharan countries, and some slight indications that drought is linked with the Southern Oscillation ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation LSBU Research Open (London South Bank University) Remote Sensing 13 23 4730 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LSBU Research Open (London South Bank University) |
op_collection_id |
ftlondsouthbanku |
language |
unknown |
topic |
ENSO JPDF meteorological drought North and West Africa return periods SPI |
spellingShingle |
ENSO JPDF meteorological drought North and West Africa return periods SPI Henchiri, M. Igbawua, T. Javed, T. Bai, Y. Zhang, S. Essifi, B. Ujoh, F. Zhang, J. Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) |
topic_facet |
ENSO JPDF meteorological drought North and West Africa return periods SPI |
description |
Droughts are one of the world’s most destructive natural disasters. In large regions of Africa, droughts can have strong environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the mechanism that drives drought and predicting its variability is important for enhancing early warning and disaster risk management. Taking North and West Africa as the study area, this study adopted multi-source data and various statistical analysis methods, such as the joint probability density function (JPDF), to study the meteorological drought and return years across a long term (1982−2018). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to evaluate the large-scale spatiotemporal drought characteristics at 1−12-month timescales. The intensity, severity, and duration of drought in the study area were evaluated using SPI−12. At the same time, the JPDF was used to determine the return year and identify the intensity, duration, and severity of drought. The Mann-Kendall method was used to test the trend of SPI and annual precipitation at 1−12-month timescales. The pattern of drought occurrence and its correlation with climate factors were analyzed. The results showed that the drought magnitude (DM) of the study area was the highest in 2008−2010, 2000−2003, and 1984−1987, with the values of 5.361, 2.792, and 2.187, respectively, and the drought lasting for three years in each of the three periods. At the same time, the lowest DM was found in 1997−1998, 1993−1994, and 1991−1992, with DM values of 0.113, 0.658, and 0.727, respectively, with a duration of one year each time. It was confirmed that the probability of return to drought was higher when the duration of drought was shorter, with short droughts occurring more regularly, but not all severe droughts hit after longer time intervals. Beyond this, we discovered a direct connection between drought and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) over Morocco, Algeria, and the sub-Saharan countries, and some slight indications that drought is linked with the Southern Oscillation ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Henchiri, M. Igbawua, T. Javed, T. Bai, Y. Zhang, S. Essifi, B. Ujoh, F. Zhang, J. |
author_facet |
Henchiri, M. Igbawua, T. Javed, T. Bai, Y. Zhang, S. Essifi, B. Ujoh, F. Zhang, J. |
author_sort |
Henchiri, M. |
title |
Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) |
title_short |
Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) |
title_full |
Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) |
title_fullStr |
Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) |
title_sort |
meteorological drought analysis and return periods over north and west africa and linkage with el niño−southern oscillation (enso) |
publisher |
MDPI |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/item/8yx01 https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/download/2d978f3017de1f24c623b89add0c39b4f2c8efd2caeeb120469ab53a16566e10/6489085/remotesensing-13-04730-v2.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234730 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/download/2d978f3017de1f24c623b89add0c39b4f2c8efd2caeeb120469ab53a16566e10/6489085/remotesensing-13-04730-v2.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234730 Henchiri, M., Igbawua, T., Javed, T., Bai, Y., Zhang, S., Essifi, B., Ujoh, F. and Zhang, J. (2021). Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Remote Sensing. 13 (23), p. e4730. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234730 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC BY 4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234730 |
container_title |
Remote Sensing |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
4730 |
_version_ |
1810464754730270720 |