Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
“Super” Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British-Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to...
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ftliverpooljmu:oai:researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk:7626 2023-05-15T17:33:31+02:00 Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment Mattthews, T Murphy, C McCarthy, GD Broderick, C Wilby, R 2017-11-07 text http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/7626/ https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/7626/3/Super%20Storm%20Desmond%20a%20process-based%20assessment.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 en eng IOP PUBLISHING LTD https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/7626/3/Super%20Storm%20Desmond%20a%20process-based%20assessment.pdf Mattthews, T, Murphy, C, McCarthy, GD, Broderick, C and Wilby, R (2017) Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 cc_by CC-BY GE Environmental Sciences Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftliverpooljmu https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 2022-01-09T06:53:34Z “Super” Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British-Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an Atmospheric River (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Liverpool John Moores University: LJMU Research Online Environmental Research Letters 13 1 014024 |
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Liverpool John Moores University: LJMU Research Online |
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ftliverpooljmu |
language |
English |
topic |
GE Environmental Sciences |
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GE Environmental Sciences Mattthews, T Murphy, C McCarthy, GD Broderick, C Wilby, R Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
topic_facet |
GE Environmental Sciences |
description |
“Super” Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British-Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an Atmospheric River (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mattthews, T Murphy, C McCarthy, GD Broderick, C Wilby, R |
author_facet |
Mattthews, T Murphy, C McCarthy, GD Broderick, C Wilby, R |
author_sort |
Mattthews, T |
title |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_short |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_full |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_fullStr |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_sort |
super storm desmond: a process-based assessment |
publisher |
IOP PUBLISHING LTD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/7626/ https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/7626/3/Super%20Storm%20Desmond%20a%20process-based%20assessment.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/7626/3/Super%20Storm%20Desmond%20a%20process-based%20assessment.pdf Mattthews, T, Murphy, C, McCarthy, GD, Broderick, C and Wilby, R (2017) Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
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13 |
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1 |
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014024 |
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1766132050056708096 |