Baltijos jūros hidrologinį režimą formuojančių hidrometeorologinių veiksnių analizė 1960–2009 m

• Main Authors: Bajerčiūtė, Asta, Pupienis, Donatas
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Lithuanian; English
• Published: 2012
• Subjects: The Baltic Sea; Water salinity; Water temperature; River runoff; Salt inflow from the North Sea; Sea ice; Precipitation; Evaporation; Arctic; Climate change; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://vu.lvb.lt/VU:ELABAPDB4598423&prefLang=en_US

Global Climate Modeling results show that since the mid-20th century noteable ocean–atmosphere interaction changes have begun due to which mean annual air temperature in all Baltic region may increase by 3–5 °C by 2100. It is likely that climate warming may have a greater impact on further Baltic Sea hydrological conditions change. This article analyzes the influence of hydro-meteorological parameters such as river runoff, salt inflow from the North Sea, precipitation, sea ice and evaporation on water temperature and salinity change in 1960–2009 in the Baltic Proper. The previous research studies have shown that longterm climate change is related to atmospheric circulation processes. There are weak relationships during the winter season between the Baltic Sea water temperature and salinity change and atmospheric and oceanic indices like the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), AO (Arctic Oscillation) and long–indices. The previous research studies have shown that precipitation, evaporation and ice formation on the open sea do not play a major role in hydro-physical parameters change. However, the analysis has shown that there are weak relationships among the studied water temperature and salinity parameters in the Baltic Sea and river runoff, precipitation, sea ice and evaporation data. It was found that time and vertical delays exist between temperature and salinity of the Baltic Proper and hydro-meteorological factors. The strongest correlation exists between water temperature and sea ice cover area (–0.81 ≥ r ≤ –0.86), as well as water salinity and river flow (0.34 ≥ r ≤ 0.49). It was found that there are vertical lags between Baltic Proper temperature, salinity and hydro-meteorological factors from the surface to bottom and time lags. In the southern oceanographic stations, stronger correlation links exist between the studied hydro-physical parameters and hydro-meteorological factors at a 10–20 m deeper water horizon than in the northern stations. Also, 3–8 year time lag of water temperature and salinity to the mentioned factors change was identified.