Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania
A snowmelt model is used for the weekly forecast of daily discharges in the Kaunas reservoir, Lithuania. The results are used to feed a risk-based decision-making model developed by the first author for dam operation during floods. Physically based calibration of a degree-day model is carried out an...
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ftlitinstagrecon:oai:elaba:4475607 2023-05-15T13:29:13+02:00 Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita Bocchiola, Daniele Augutis, Juozas Rosso, Renzo 2008 http://vdu.lvb.lt/VDU:ELABAPDB4475607&prefLang=en_US eng eng http://vdu.lvb.lt/VDU:ELABAPDB4475607&prefLang=en_US Annals of Glaciology, 2008, Vol. 49, no. 1, p. 33-37 ISSN 0260-3055 Reservoir Hydropower system Forecast info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2008 ftlitinstagrecon 2021-12-02T01:30:07Z A snowmelt model is used for the weekly forecast of daily discharges in the Kaunas reservoir, Lithuania. The results are used to feed a risk-based decision-making model developed by the first author for dam operation during floods. Physically based calibration of a degree-day model is carried out and coupled with flow routing using Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph theory. Temperature forecast is used as the driving variable. Due to the relative smoothness of snowmelt over time and the considerable basin size, the model provides cceptable results. Kalman filtering is then used to merge the estimates from the snowmelt model with those from an ARIMA flow model, resulting in better forecasting than that using each method alone. Uncertainty analysis of the snowmelt-model results is then carried out, snowing considerable influence of the main parameter degree-day and ofsoil moisture conditions. Therefore these must be accurately estimated for forecasting purposes during flood events. Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology LAEI VL (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics Virtual Library) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LAEI VL (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics Virtual Library) |
op_collection_id |
ftlitinstagrecon |
language |
English |
topic |
Reservoir Hydropower system Forecast |
spellingShingle |
Reservoir Hydropower system Forecast Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita Bocchiola, Daniele Augutis, Juozas Rosso, Renzo Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
topic_facet |
Reservoir Hydropower system Forecast |
description |
A snowmelt model is used for the weekly forecast of daily discharges in the Kaunas reservoir, Lithuania. The results are used to feed a risk-based decision-making model developed by the first author for dam operation during floods. Physically based calibration of a degree-day model is carried out and coupled with flow routing using Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph theory. Temperature forecast is used as the driving variable. Due to the relative smoothness of snowmelt over time and the considerable basin size, the model provides cceptable results. Kalman filtering is then used to merge the estimates from the snowmelt model with those from an ARIMA flow model, resulting in better forecasting than that using each method alone. Uncertainty analysis of the snowmelt-model results is then carried out, snowing considerable influence of the main parameter degree-day and ofsoil moisture conditions. Therefore these must be accurately estimated for forecasting purposes during flood events. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita Bocchiola, Daniele Augutis, Juozas Rosso, Renzo |
author_facet |
Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita Bocchiola, Daniele Augutis, Juozas Rosso, Renzo |
author_sort |
Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita |
title |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_short |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_full |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_fullStr |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_full_unstemmed |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_sort |
use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in lithuania |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://vdu.lvb.lt/VDU:ELABAPDB4475607&prefLang=en_US |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology |
op_source |
Annals of Glaciology, 2008, Vol. 49, no. 1, p. 33-37 ISSN 0260-3055 |
op_relation |
http://vdu.lvb.lt/VDU:ELABAPDB4475607&prefLang=en_US |
_version_ |
1765999360201457664 |