Arkties regiono saugumo politikos kaita klimato atšilimo kontekste

• Main Author: Čėsnas, Deividas
• Other Authors: Karpavičiūtė, Ieva
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: Lithuanian; English
• Published: Institutional Repository of Vytautas Magnus University 2021
• Subjects: Arctic; offensive realism; regional security policy; Canada; Norway; Climate change
• Online Access: http://vdu.oai.elaba.lt/documents/15893909.pdf; http://vdu.lvb.lt/VDU:ELABAETD15893909&prefLang=en_US

Recent reports on climate change reveals intensive worming in the Arctic region. It is possible that there will be an ice free ocean during summer season even in this century. This will open up new shipping routes and resource extraction possibilities for five Arctic states: Russia, USA, Canada, Norway and Denmark. States can use these opportunities to increase their power and change the balance of power in the region as well as on the global scale. This perspective may raze regional security issues and lead to military conflicts. This study uses a theory of international relations called “offensive realism” to analyze behavior of states in the region. The theory, its critics and possibilities to use it on the regional level is presented in the beginning of the study. Further on it is analyzed how Arctic, the region with little importance to the international politics, because of climate change and the discovery of energy resources is gaining significance and could became the factor influencing regional and global balance of power. Interests, priorities and policy of states for the Arctic region is presented in the study. It provides insights how the policies of these states coincide with the capabilities of offensive realism to explain state behavior in the international politics. The study reveals that despite states pursue to increase their power and this leads to territorial disputes in the Arctic, there is little possibility of military conflict. This is because of two main reasons, first, damage of the conflict most probably would outweigh the possible benefits, and second, four of five states are alias – NATO members. The study also reveals that offensive realism is not fully capable to explain the behavior of some states, for instance Danish policy in the Arctic.