The global methane budget 2000-2012
The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of at...
Published in: | Earth System Science Data |
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Linköpings universitet, Tema Miljöförändring
2016
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Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-133885 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 |
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LIU - Linköping University: Publications (DiVA) |
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Physical Geography Naturgeografi |
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Physical Geography Naturgeografi Saunois, Marielle Bousquet, Philippe Poulter, Ben Peregon, Anna Ciais, Philippe Canadell, Josep G. Dlugokencky, Edward J. Etiope, Giuseppe Bastviken, David Houweling, Sander Janssens-Maenhout, Greet Tubiello, Francesco N. Castaldi, Simona Jackson, Robert B. Alexe, Mihai Arora, Vivek K. Beerling, David J. Bergamaschi, Peter Blake, Donald R. Brailsford, Gordon Brovkin, Victor Bruhwiler, Lori Crevoisier, Cyril Crill, Patrick Covey, Kristofer Curry, Charles Frankenberg, Christian Gedney, Nicola Hoeglund-Isaksson, Lena Ishizawa, Misa Ito, Akihiko Joos, Fortunat Kim, Heon-Sook Kleinen, Thomas Krummel, Paul Lamarque, Jean-Francois Langenfelds, Ray Locatelli, Robin Machida, Toshinobu Maksyutov, Shamil McDonald, Kyle C. Marshall, Julia Melton, Joe R. Morino, Isamu Naik, Vaishali ODoherty, Simon Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Patra, Prabir K. Peng, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peters, Glen P. Pison, Isabelle Prigent, Catherine Prinn, Ronald Ramonet, Michel Riley, William J. Saito, Makoto Santini, Monia Schroeder, Ronny Simpson, Isobel J. Spahni, Renato Steele, Paul Takizawa, Atsushi Thornton, Brett F. Tian, Hanqin Tohjima, Yasunori Viovy, Nicolas Voulgarakis, Apostolos van Weele, Michiel van der Werf, Guido R. Weiss, Ray Wiedinmyer, Christine Wilton, David J. Wiltshire, Andy Worthy, Doug Wunch, Debra Xu, Xiyan Yoshida, Yukio Zhang, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhu, Qiuan The global methane budget 2000-2012 |
topic_facet |
Physical Geography Naturgeografi |
description |
The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (similar to biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 540-568. About 60% of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (similar to 64% of the global budget, amp;lt;30 degrees N) as compared to mid (similar to 32 %, 30-60 degrees N) and high northern latitudes (similar to 4 %, 60-90 degrees N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (similar to 58 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 51-72, -14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 73-108, + 19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project. Funding Agencies|Swiss National Science Foundation; NASA [NNX14AF93G, NNX14AO73G]; National Environmental Science Program - Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub; European Commission [283576, 633080]; ESA Climate Change Initiative Greenhouse Gases Phase 2 project; US Department of Energy, BER [DE-AC02-05CH11231]; FAO member countries; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [2-1502]; ERC [322998]; NERC [NE/J00748X/1]; Swedish Research Council VR; Research Council of Norway [244074]; NSF [1243232, 1243220]; National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); Chinas QianRen Program; CSIRO Australia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Australian Institute of Marine Science; Australian Antarctic Division; NOAA USA; Meteorological Service of Canada; National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) [NAG5-12669, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, NNX07AE87G, NNX07AF09G, NNX11AF15G, NNX11AF16G]; Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC, UK) [GA01081]; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO Australia); Bureau of Meteorology (Australia); Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme [GA01101] |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Saunois, Marielle Bousquet, Philippe Poulter, Ben Peregon, Anna Ciais, Philippe Canadell, Josep G. Dlugokencky, Edward J. Etiope, Giuseppe Bastviken, David Houweling, Sander Janssens-Maenhout, Greet Tubiello, Francesco N. Castaldi, Simona Jackson, Robert B. Alexe, Mihai Arora, Vivek K. Beerling, David J. Bergamaschi, Peter Blake, Donald R. Brailsford, Gordon Brovkin, Victor Bruhwiler, Lori Crevoisier, Cyril Crill, Patrick Covey, Kristofer Curry, Charles Frankenberg, Christian Gedney, Nicola Hoeglund-Isaksson, Lena Ishizawa, Misa Ito, Akihiko Joos, Fortunat Kim, Heon-Sook Kleinen, Thomas Krummel, Paul Lamarque, Jean-Francois Langenfelds, Ray Locatelli, Robin Machida, Toshinobu Maksyutov, Shamil McDonald, Kyle C. Marshall, Julia Melton, Joe R. Morino, Isamu Naik, Vaishali ODoherty, Simon Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Patra, Prabir K. Peng, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peters, Glen P. Pison, Isabelle Prigent, Catherine Prinn, Ronald Ramonet, Michel Riley, William J. Saito, Makoto Santini, Monia Schroeder, Ronny Simpson, Isobel J. Spahni, Renato Steele, Paul Takizawa, Atsushi Thornton, Brett F. Tian, Hanqin Tohjima, Yasunori Viovy, Nicolas Voulgarakis, Apostolos van Weele, Michiel van der Werf, Guido R. Weiss, Ray Wiedinmyer, Christine Wilton, David J. Wiltshire, Andy Worthy, Doug Wunch, Debra Xu, Xiyan Yoshida, Yukio Zhang, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhu, Qiuan |
author_facet |
Saunois, Marielle Bousquet, Philippe Poulter, Ben Peregon, Anna Ciais, Philippe Canadell, Josep G. Dlugokencky, Edward J. Etiope, Giuseppe Bastviken, David Houweling, Sander Janssens-Maenhout, Greet Tubiello, Francesco N. Castaldi, Simona Jackson, Robert B. Alexe, Mihai Arora, Vivek K. Beerling, David J. Bergamaschi, Peter Blake, Donald R. Brailsford, Gordon Brovkin, Victor Bruhwiler, Lori Crevoisier, Cyril Crill, Patrick Covey, Kristofer Curry, Charles Frankenberg, Christian Gedney, Nicola Hoeglund-Isaksson, Lena Ishizawa, Misa Ito, Akihiko Joos, Fortunat Kim, Heon-Sook Kleinen, Thomas Krummel, Paul Lamarque, Jean-Francois Langenfelds, Ray Locatelli, Robin Machida, Toshinobu Maksyutov, Shamil McDonald, Kyle C. Marshall, Julia Melton, Joe R. Morino, Isamu Naik, Vaishali ODoherty, Simon Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Patra, Prabir K. Peng, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peters, Glen P. Pison, Isabelle Prigent, Catherine Prinn, Ronald Ramonet, Michel Riley, William J. Saito, Makoto Santini, Monia Schroeder, Ronny Simpson, Isobel J. Spahni, Renato Steele, Paul Takizawa, Atsushi Thornton, Brett F. Tian, Hanqin Tohjima, Yasunori Viovy, Nicolas Voulgarakis, Apostolos van Weele, Michiel van der Werf, Guido R. Weiss, Ray Wiedinmyer, Christine Wilton, David J. Wiltshire, Andy Worthy, Doug Wunch, Debra Xu, Xiyan Yoshida, Yukio Zhang, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhu, Qiuan |
author_sort |
Saunois, Marielle |
title |
The global methane budget 2000-2012 |
title_short |
The global methane budget 2000-2012 |
title_full |
The global methane budget 2000-2012 |
title_fullStr |
The global methane budget 2000-2012 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The global methane budget 2000-2012 |
title_sort |
global methane budget 2000-2012 |
publisher |
Linköpings universitet, Tema Miljöförändring |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-133885 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 |
geographic |
Antarctic Canada Norway |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Canada Norway |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Australian Antarctic Division |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Australian Antarctic Division |
op_relation |
Earth System Science Data, 1866-3508, 2016, 8:2, s. 697-751 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-133885 doi:10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 ISI:000390145300001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 |
container_title |
Earth System Science Data |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
697 |
op_container_end_page |
751 |
_version_ |
1766265804884541440 |
spelling |
ftlinkoepinguniv:oai:DiVA.org:liu-133885 2023-05-15T13:57:53+02:00 The global methane budget 2000-2012 Saunois, Marielle Bousquet, Philippe Poulter, Ben Peregon, Anna Ciais, Philippe Canadell, Josep G. Dlugokencky, Edward J. Etiope, Giuseppe Bastviken, David Houweling, Sander Janssens-Maenhout, Greet Tubiello, Francesco N. Castaldi, Simona Jackson, Robert B. Alexe, Mihai Arora, Vivek K. Beerling, David J. Bergamaschi, Peter Blake, Donald R. Brailsford, Gordon Brovkin, Victor Bruhwiler, Lori Crevoisier, Cyril Crill, Patrick Covey, Kristofer Curry, Charles Frankenberg, Christian Gedney, Nicola Hoeglund-Isaksson, Lena Ishizawa, Misa Ito, Akihiko Joos, Fortunat Kim, Heon-Sook Kleinen, Thomas Krummel, Paul Lamarque, Jean-Francois Langenfelds, Ray Locatelli, Robin Machida, Toshinobu Maksyutov, Shamil McDonald, Kyle C. Marshall, Julia Melton, Joe R. Morino, Isamu Naik, Vaishali ODoherty, Simon Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Patra, Prabir K. Peng, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peters, Glen P. Pison, Isabelle Prigent, Catherine Prinn, Ronald Ramonet, Michel Riley, William J. Saito, Makoto Santini, Monia Schroeder, Ronny Simpson, Isobel J. Spahni, Renato Steele, Paul Takizawa, Atsushi Thornton, Brett F. Tian, Hanqin Tohjima, Yasunori Viovy, Nicolas Voulgarakis, Apostolos van Weele, Michiel van der Werf, Guido R. Weiss, Ray Wiedinmyer, Christine Wilton, David J. Wiltshire, Andy Worthy, Doug Wunch, Debra Xu, Xiyan Yoshida, Yukio Zhang, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhu, Qiuan 2016 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-133885 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 eng eng Linköpings universitet, Tema Miljöförändring Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten University of Paris Saclay, France NASA, MD 20771 USA CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Australia NOAA ESRL, CO 80305 USA Ist Nazl Geofis and Vulcanol, Italy SRON, Netherlands; Institute Marine and Atmospher Research, Netherlands European Commiss Joint Research Centre, Italy Food and Agriculture Org United Nations FAO, Italy Seconda University of Napoli, Italy; FEFU, Russia; Euromediterranean Centre Climate Change, Italy Stanford University, CA 94305 USA Environm and Climate Change Canada, Canada University of Sheffield, England University of Calif Irvine, CA 92697 USA National Institute Water and Atmospher Research, New Zealand Max Planck Institute Meteorol, Germany Ecole Polytech, France Bolin Centre Climate Research, Sweden Yale University, CT 06511 USA University of Victoria, Canada Jet Prop Lab, CA 91109 USA Joint Centre Hydrometeorol Research, England Int Institute Appl Syst Anal, Austria Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan University of Bern, Switzerland CSIRO, Australia NCAR, CO 80307 USA CUNY, NY 10031 USA Max Planck Institute Biogeochem, Germany NOAA, NJ 08540 USA University of Bristol, England Lund University, Sweden JAMSTEC, Japan University of Quebec, Canada CICERO, Norway Observ Paris, France MIT, MA 02139 USA Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, CA 94720 USA Euromediterranean Centre Climate Change, Italy CUNY, NY 10031 USA; University of Hohenheim, Germany University of Bern, Switzerland; University of Bern, Switzerland JMA, Japan Auburn University, AL 36849 USA Imperial Coll London, England KNMI, Netherlands Vrije University of Amsterdam, Netherlands University of Calif San Diego, CA 92093 USA Met Off Hadley Centre, England Environm Canada, Canada Earth System Science Data, 1866-3508, 2016, 8:2, s. 697-751 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-133885 doi:10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 ISI:000390145300001 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Physical Geography Naturgeografi Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2016 ftlinkoepinguniv https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 2022-05-01T08:20:40Z The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (similar to biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 540-568. About 60% of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (similar to 64% of the global budget, amp;lt;30 degrees N) as compared to mid (similar to 32 %, 30-60 degrees N) and high northern latitudes (similar to 4 %, 60-90 degrees N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (similar to 58 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 51-72, -14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 73-108, + 19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project. Funding Agencies|Swiss National Science Foundation; NASA [NNX14AF93G, NNX14AO73G]; National Environmental Science Program - Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub; European Commission [283576, 633080]; ESA Climate Change Initiative Greenhouse Gases Phase 2 project; US Department of Energy, BER [DE-AC02-05CH11231]; FAO member countries; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [2-1502]; ERC [322998]; NERC [NE/J00748X/1]; Swedish Research Council VR; Research Council of Norway [244074]; NSF [1243232, 1243220]; National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); Chinas QianRen Program; CSIRO Australia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Australian Institute of Marine Science; Australian Antarctic Division; NOAA USA; Meteorological Service of Canada; National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) [NAG5-12669, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, NNX07AE87G, NNX07AF09G, NNX11AF15G, NNX11AF16G]; Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC, UK) [GA01081]; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO Australia); Bureau of Meteorology (Australia); Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme [GA01101] Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Australian Antarctic Division LIU - Linköping University: Publications (DiVA) Antarctic Canada Norway Earth System Science Data 8 2 697 751 |