A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies
Forest fires in Siberia have a significant effect on the global carbon balance. It is therefore of interest to study the environmental factors that may be responsible for their variability. Here we examine variability in the annual number of forest fire scars at a spatial scale of 2.5°. This is deco...
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American Geophysical Union
2009
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Online Access: | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL026679/abstract http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4768 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 |
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ftleicester:oai:lra.le.ac.uk:2381/4768 2023-05-15T15:03:09+02:00 A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies Jupp, Tim E. Taylor, Christopher M. Balzter, Heiko George, Charles T. 2009-11-02T15:26:02Z http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL026679/abstract http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4768 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 en eng American Geophysical Union Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33, L14701. 0094-8276 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL026679/abstract http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4768 doi:10.1029/2006GL026679 This paper was published as Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33, L14701. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union. It is also available from http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL026679.shtml. Doi:10.1029/2006GL026679 Article 2009 ftleicester https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 2019-03-22T20:13:24Z Forest fires in Siberia have a significant effect on the global carbon balance. It is therefore of interest to study the environmental factors that may be responsible for their variability. Here we examine variability in the annual number of forest fire scars at a spatial scale of 2.5°. This is decomposed statistically into a spatio–temporal component correlated with low summer rainfall, a spatial component correlated with population density and a temporal component correlated with the Arctic Oscillation. Data come from ten years of satellite–derived data, incorporating both the number of forest fire scars and monthly rainfall. The expected number of fire scars halves for each additional 0.35 mm per day of rainfall in the period April–July. Our findings may prove useful in parameterising both fire models within climate simulations and fire warning systems based on numerical weather predictions of regional dry anomalies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Siberia University of Leicester: Leicester Research Archive (LRA) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 33 14 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Leicester: Leicester Research Archive (LRA) |
op_collection_id |
ftleicester |
language |
English |
description |
Forest fires in Siberia have a significant effect on the global carbon balance. It is therefore of interest to study the environmental factors that may be responsible for their variability. Here we examine variability in the annual number of forest fire scars at a spatial scale of 2.5°. This is decomposed statistically into a spatio–temporal component correlated with low summer rainfall, a spatial component correlated with population density and a temporal component correlated with the Arctic Oscillation. Data come from ten years of satellite–derived data, incorporating both the number of forest fire scars and monthly rainfall. The expected number of fire scars halves for each additional 0.35 mm per day of rainfall in the period April–July. Our findings may prove useful in parameterising both fire models within climate simulations and fire warning systems based on numerical weather predictions of regional dry anomalies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jupp, Tim E. Taylor, Christopher M. Balzter, Heiko George, Charles T. |
spellingShingle |
Jupp, Tim E. Taylor, Christopher M. Balzter, Heiko George, Charles T. A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
author_facet |
Jupp, Tim E. Taylor, Christopher M. Balzter, Heiko George, Charles T. |
author_sort |
Jupp, Tim E. |
title |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_short |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_full |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_fullStr |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_full_unstemmed |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_sort |
statistical model linking siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL026679/abstract http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4768 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Siberia |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33, L14701. 0094-8276 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL026679/abstract http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4768 doi:10.1029/2006GL026679 |
op_rights |
This paper was published as Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33, L14701. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union. It is also available from http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL026679.shtml. Doi:10.1029/2006GL026679 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
14 |
_version_ |
1766335037842653184 |