Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents
The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-AD 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial...
Published in: | Nature |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Nature Research (part of Springer Nature)
2019
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Online Access: | https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19082 http://hdl.handle.net/2381/43531 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19082 |
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ftleicester:oai:lra.le.ac.uk:2381/43531 |
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University of Leicester: Leicester Research Archive (LRA) |
op_collection_id |
ftleicester |
language |
English |
topic |
Science & Technology Multidisciplinary Sciences Science & Technology - Other Topics SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE CLIMATE FORCING RECONSTRUCTIONS CARBON ISOTOPIC RECORD WESTERN INDIAN-OCEAN SANTA-BARBARA BASIN TROPICAL PACIFIC SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION LAST MILLENNIUM PAST MILLENNIUM |
spellingShingle |
Science & Technology Multidisciplinary Sciences Science & Technology - Other Topics SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE CLIMATE FORCING RECONSTRUCTIONS CARBON ISOTOPIC RECORD WESTERN INDIAN-OCEAN SANTA-BARBARA BASIN TROPICAL PACIFIC SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION LAST MILLENNIUM PAST MILLENNIUM Abram, NJ McGregor, HV Tierney, JE Evans, MN McKay, NP Kaufman, DS Thirumalai, K Martrat, B Goosse, H Phipps, SJ Steig, EJ Kilbourne, KH Saenger, CP Zinke, J Leduc, G Addison, JA Mortyn, PG Seidenkrantz, M-S Sicre, M-A Selvaraj, K Filipsson, HL Neukom, R Gergis, J Curran, MAJ von Gunten, L Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents |
topic_facet |
Science & Technology Multidisciplinary Sciences Science & Technology - Other Topics SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE CLIMATE FORCING RECONSTRUCTIONS CARBON ISOTOPIC RECORD WESTERN INDIAN-OCEAN SANTA-BARBARA BASIN TROPICAL PACIFIC SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION LAST MILLENNIUM PAST MILLENNIUM |
description |
The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-AD 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account. We acknowledge support from PAGES funded by the US and Swiss National Science Foundations (NSF) and NOAA. N.J.A. is supported by an Australian Research Council (ARC) QEII fellowship awarded under DP110101161 and this work contributes to ARC Discovery Project DP140102059 (N.J.A., M.A.J.C.) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (N.J.A., S.J.P., J.G.). H.V.M. is supported by ARC Future Fellowship FT140100286 and acknowledges funding from ARC Discovery Project DP1092945 (H.M.V., S.J.P.). We acknowledge fellowship support from a CSIC-Ramón y Cajal post-doctoral programme RYC-2013-14073 (B.M.), a Clare Hall College Cambridge Shackleton Fellowship (B.M.), and an ARC DECRA fellowship DE130100668 (J.G.). We acknowledge research support from US NSF grant OCE1536249 (M.N.E.), the ARC Special Research Initiative for the Antarctic Gateway Partnership (Project ID SR140300001; S.J.P.), Red CONSOLIDER GRACCIE CTM2014-59111-REDC (B.M.), Swiss NSF grant PZ00P2_154802 (R.N.), the Danish Council for Independent Research, Natural Science OCEANHEAT project 12-126709/FNU (M.-S.S.), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41273083; K.S.) and Shanghai Fund (2013SH012; K.S.). This is University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science contribution 5206. Peer-reviewed Post-print |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abram, NJ McGregor, HV Tierney, JE Evans, MN McKay, NP Kaufman, DS Thirumalai, K Martrat, B Goosse, H Phipps, SJ Steig, EJ Kilbourne, KH Saenger, CP Zinke, J Leduc, G Addison, JA Mortyn, PG Seidenkrantz, M-S Sicre, M-A Selvaraj, K Filipsson, HL Neukom, R Gergis, J Curran, MAJ von Gunten, L |
author_facet |
Abram, NJ McGregor, HV Tierney, JE Evans, MN McKay, NP Kaufman, DS Thirumalai, K Martrat, B Goosse, H Phipps, SJ Steig, EJ Kilbourne, KH Saenger, CP Zinke, J Leduc, G Addison, JA Mortyn, PG Seidenkrantz, M-S Sicre, M-A Selvaraj, K Filipsson, HL Neukom, R Gergis, J Curran, MAJ von Gunten, L |
author_sort |
Abram, NJ |
title |
Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents |
title_short |
Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents |
title_full |
Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents |
title_fullStr |
Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents |
title_sort |
early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents |
publisher |
Nature Research (part of Springer Nature) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19082 http://hdl.handle.net/2381/43531 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19082 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Shackleton Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Shackleton Pacific Indian |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000382646600033&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8c4e325952a993be76947405d4bce7d5 NATURE, 2016, 536 (7617), pp. 411-+ (22) 0028-0836 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19082 http://hdl.handle.net/2381/43531 doi:10.1038/nature19082 1476-4687 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. Deposited with reference to the publisher’s open access archiving policy. (http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19082 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
536 |
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7617 |
container_start_page |
411 |
op_container_end_page |
418 |
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spelling |
ftleicester:oai:lra.le.ac.uk:2381/43531 2023-05-15T13:31:55+02:00 Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents Abram, NJ McGregor, HV Tierney, JE Evans, MN McKay, NP Kaufman, DS Thirumalai, K Martrat, B Goosse, H Phipps, SJ Steig, EJ Kilbourne, KH Saenger, CP Zinke, J Leduc, G Addison, JA Mortyn, PG Seidenkrantz, M-S Sicre, M-A Selvaraj, K Filipsson, HL Neukom, R Gergis, J Curran, MAJ von Gunten, L 2019-03-08T12:04:28Z https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19082 http://hdl.handle.net/2381/43531 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19082 en eng Nature Research (part of Springer Nature) http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000382646600033&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8c4e325952a993be76947405d4bce7d5 NATURE, 2016, 536 (7617), pp. 411-+ (22) 0028-0836 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19082 http://hdl.handle.net/2381/43531 doi:10.1038/nature19082 1476-4687 Copyright © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. Deposited with reference to the publisher’s open access archiving policy. (http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved) Science & Technology Multidisciplinary Sciences Science & Technology - Other Topics SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE CLIMATE FORCING RECONSTRUCTIONS CARBON ISOTOPIC RECORD WESTERN INDIAN-OCEAN SANTA-BARBARA BASIN TROPICAL PACIFIC SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION LAST MILLENNIUM PAST MILLENNIUM Journal Article Article;Journal 2019 ftleicester https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19082 2019-03-22T20:26:10Z The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-AD 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account. We acknowledge support from PAGES funded by the US and Swiss National Science Foundations (NSF) and NOAA. N.J.A. is supported by an Australian Research Council (ARC) QEII fellowship awarded under DP110101161 and this work contributes to ARC Discovery Project DP140102059 (N.J.A., M.A.J.C.) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (N.J.A., S.J.P., J.G.). H.V.M. is supported by ARC Future Fellowship FT140100286 and acknowledges funding from ARC Discovery Project DP1092945 (H.M.V., S.J.P.). We acknowledge fellowship support from a CSIC-Ramón y Cajal post-doctoral programme RYC-2013-14073 (B.M.), a Clare Hall College Cambridge Shackleton Fellowship (B.M.), and an ARC DECRA fellowship DE130100668 (J.G.). We acknowledge research support from US NSF grant OCE1536249 (M.N.E.), the ARC Special Research Initiative for the Antarctic Gateway Partnership (Project ID SR140300001; S.J.P.), Red CONSOLIDER GRACCIE CTM2014-59111-REDC (B.M.), Swiss NSF grant PZ00P2_154802 (R.N.), the Danish Council for Independent Research, Natural Science OCEANHEAT project 12-126709/FNU (M.-S.S.), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41273083; K.S.) and Shanghai Fund (2013SH012; K.S.). This is University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science contribution 5206. Peer-reviewed Post-print Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic University of Leicester: Leicester Research Archive (LRA) Antarctic The Antarctic Shackleton Pacific Indian Nature 536 7617 411 418 |