Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’
In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correl...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:zG75PYkBdbrxVwz6qXKD 2023-07-30T04:05:32+02:00 Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ Caesar, L Rahmstorf, S Feulner, G 2021-2-26 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10469 https://doi.org/10.34657/9505 eng eng Bristol : IOP Publ. CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Environmental research letters : ERL 13 (2021), Nr. 3 Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Global surface warming Ocean heat uptake 690 article Text 2021 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/9505 2023-07-10T12:52:40Z In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on 'established evidence' that was only true for preindustrial conditions—this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947–2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
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English |
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Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Global surface warming Ocean heat uptake 690 |
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Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Global surface warming Ocean heat uptake 690 Caesar, L Rahmstorf, S Feulner, G Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
topic_facet |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Global surface warming Ocean heat uptake 690 |
description |
In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on 'established evidence' that was only true for preindustrial conditions—this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947–2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Caesar, L Rahmstorf, S Feulner, G |
author_facet |
Caesar, L Rahmstorf, S Feulner, G |
author_sort |
Caesar, L |
title |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_short |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_full |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_fullStr |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
title_sort |
reply to comment on ‘on the relationship between atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’ |
publisher |
Bristol : IOP Publ. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10469 https://doi.org/10.34657/9505 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental research letters : ERL 13 (2021), Nr. 3 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/9505 |
_version_ |
1772817522766118912 |