Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events
During the last glacial period, climate records from the North Atlantic region exhibit a pronounced spectral component corresponding to a period of about 1470 years, which has attracted much attention. This spectral peak is closely related to the recurrence pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events....
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:tIf5pIkBdbrxVwz6XrVs 2023-08-20T04:06:07+02:00 Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events Braun, H. Ditlevsen, P. Kurths, J. Mudelsee, M. 2010 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.34657/1088 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/620 eng eng München : European Geopyhsical Union CC BY 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Climate of the Past, Volume 6, Issue 1, Page 85-92 atmosphere-ocean coupling Brownian motion Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle Last Glacial paleoclimate proxy climate record 550 article Text 2010 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/1088 2023-07-30T23:26:06Z During the last glacial period, climate records from the North Atlantic region exhibit a pronounced spectral component corresponding to a period of about 1470 years, which has attracted much attention. This spectral peak is closely related to the recurrence pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. In previous studies a red noise random process, more precisely a first-order autoregressive (AR1) process, was used to evaluate the statistical significance of this peak, with a reported significance of more than 99%. Here we use a simple mechanistic two-state model of DO events, which itself was derived from a much more sophisticated ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, to numerically evaluate the spectral properties of random (i.e., solely noise-driven) events. This way we find that the power spectral density of random DO events differs fundamentally from a simple red noise random process. These results question the applicability of linear spectral analysis for estimating the statistical significance of highly non-linear processes such as DO events. More precisely, to enhance our scientific understanding about the trigger of DO events, we must not consider simple "straw men" as, for example, the AR1 random process, but rather test against realistic alternative descriptions. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Dansgaard-Oeschger events North Atlantic LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
atmosphere-ocean coupling Brownian motion Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle Last Glacial paleoclimate proxy climate record 550 |
spellingShingle |
atmosphere-ocean coupling Brownian motion Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle Last Glacial paleoclimate proxy climate record 550 Braun, H. Ditlevsen, P. Kurths, J. Mudelsee, M. Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events |
topic_facet |
atmosphere-ocean coupling Brownian motion Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle Last Glacial paleoclimate proxy climate record 550 |
description |
During the last glacial period, climate records from the North Atlantic region exhibit a pronounced spectral component corresponding to a period of about 1470 years, which has attracted much attention. This spectral peak is closely related to the recurrence pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. In previous studies a red noise random process, more precisely a first-order autoregressive (AR1) process, was used to evaluate the statistical significance of this peak, with a reported significance of more than 99%. Here we use a simple mechanistic two-state model of DO events, which itself was derived from a much more sophisticated ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, to numerically evaluate the spectral properties of random (i.e., solely noise-driven) events. This way we find that the power spectral density of random DO events differs fundamentally from a simple red noise random process. These results question the applicability of linear spectral analysis for estimating the statistical significance of highly non-linear processes such as DO events. More precisely, to enhance our scientific understanding about the trigger of DO events, we must not consider simple "straw men" as, for example, the AR1 random process, but rather test against realistic alternative descriptions. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Braun, H. Ditlevsen, P. Kurths, J. Mudelsee, M. |
author_facet |
Braun, H. Ditlevsen, P. Kurths, J. Mudelsee, M. |
author_sort |
Braun, H. |
title |
Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events |
title_short |
Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events |
title_full |
Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events |
title_fullStr |
Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events |
title_full_unstemmed |
Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events |
title_sort |
limitations of red noise in analysing dansgaard-oeschger events |
publisher |
München : European Geopyhsical Union |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.34657/1088 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/620 |
genre |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events North Atlantic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Volume 6, Issue 1, Page 85-92 |
op_rights |
CC BY 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/1088 |
_version_ |
1774717038898446336 |