Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerou...

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Main Authors: Beckmann, Johanna, Perrette, Mahé, Beyer, Sebastian, Calov, Reinhard, Willeit, Matteo, Ganopolski, Andrey
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus 2019
Subjects:
910
Online Access:https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10201
https://doi.org/10.34657/9237
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spelling ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:sHbfXIkBdbrxVwz6uAuB 2023-07-30T04:03:37+02:00 Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model Beckmann, Johanna Perrette, Mahé Beyer, Sebastian Calov, Reinhard Willeit, Matteo Ganopolski, Andrey 2019 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10201 https://doi.org/10.34657/9237 eng eng Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Cryosphere : TC 13 (2019), Nr. 9 910 article Text 2019 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/9237 2023-07-16T23:09:03Z In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerous Greenland outlet glaciers. The latter is likely connected to enhanced submarine melting that, in turn, can be explained by ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge. The mechanisms involved in submarine melting are not yet fully understood and are only simplistically incorporated in some models of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, we investigate the response of 12 representative Greenland outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic warming using a coupled line–plume glacier–flow line model resolving one horizontal dimension. The model parameters have been tuned for individual outlet glaciers using present-day observational constraints. We then run the model from present to the year 2100, forcing the model with changes in surface mass balance and surface runoff from simulations with a regional climate model for the RCP8.5 scenario, and applying a linear ocean temperature warming with different rates of changes representing uncertainties in the CMIP5 model experiments for the same climate change scenario. We also use different initial temperature–salinity profiles obtained from direct measurements and from ocean reanalysis data. Using different combinations of submarine melting and calving parameters that reproduce the present-day state of the glaciers, we estimate uncertainties in the contribution to global SLR for individual glaciers. We also perform a sensitivity analysis of the three forcing factors (changes in surface mass balance, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge), which shows that the roles of the different forcing factors are diverse for individual glaciers. We find that changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are of comparable importance for the cumulative contribution of all 12 ... Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Greenland
institution Open Polar
collection LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association)
op_collection_id ftleibnizopen
language English
topic 910
spellingShingle 910
Beckmann, Johanna
Perrette, Mahé
Beyer, Sebastian
Calov, Reinhard
Willeit, Matteo
Ganopolski, Andrey
Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
topic_facet 910
description In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerous Greenland outlet glaciers. The latter is likely connected to enhanced submarine melting that, in turn, can be explained by ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge. The mechanisms involved in submarine melting are not yet fully understood and are only simplistically incorporated in some models of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, we investigate the response of 12 representative Greenland outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic warming using a coupled line–plume glacier–flow line model resolving one horizontal dimension. The model parameters have been tuned for individual outlet glaciers using present-day observational constraints. We then run the model from present to the year 2100, forcing the model with changes in surface mass balance and surface runoff from simulations with a regional climate model for the RCP8.5 scenario, and applying a linear ocean temperature warming with different rates of changes representing uncertainties in the CMIP5 model experiments for the same climate change scenario. We also use different initial temperature–salinity profiles obtained from direct measurements and from ocean reanalysis data. Using different combinations of submarine melting and calving parameters that reproduce the present-day state of the glaciers, we estimate uncertainties in the contribution to global SLR for individual glaciers. We also perform a sensitivity analysis of the three forcing factors (changes in surface mass balance, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge), which shows that the roles of the different forcing factors are diverse for individual glaciers. We find that changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are of comparable importance for the cumulative contribution of all 12 ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Beckmann, Johanna
Perrette, Mahé
Beyer, Sebastian
Calov, Reinhard
Willeit, Matteo
Ganopolski, Andrey
author_facet Beckmann, Johanna
Perrette, Mahé
Beyer, Sebastian
Calov, Reinhard
Willeit, Matteo
Ganopolski, Andrey
author_sort Beckmann, Johanna
title Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_short Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_full Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_fullStr Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
title_sort modeling the response of greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line-plume model
publisher Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus
publishDate 2019
url https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10201
https://doi.org/10.34657/9237
geographic Greenland
geographic_facet Greenland
genre glacier
Greenland
Ice Sheet
The Cryosphere
genre_facet glacier
Greenland
Ice Sheet
The Cryosphere
op_source The Cryosphere : TC 13 (2019), Nr. 9
op_rights CC BY 4.0 Unported
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.34657/9237
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