Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change
Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:qTiIYIgBdbrxVwz6sUIq 2023-06-11T04:15:51+02:00 Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K 2022 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/11442 https://doi.org/10.34657/10476 eng eng Bristol : IOP Publ. CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 Environmental Research Letters 17 (2022), Nr. 9 detection and attribution global warming permafrost 690 333.7 article Text 2022 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/10476 2023-05-28T23:36:36Z Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
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ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
detection and attribution global warming permafrost 690 333.7 |
spellingShingle |
detection and attribution global warming permafrost 690 333.7 Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
topic_facet |
detection and attribution global warming permafrost 690 333.7 |
description |
Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K |
author_facet |
Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K |
author_sort |
Gudmundsson, Lukas |
title |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_short |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_full |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_fullStr |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_sort |
attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
publisher |
Bristol : IOP Publ. |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/11442 https://doi.org/10.34657/10476 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters 17 (2022), Nr. 9 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/10476 |
_version_ |
1768372998050414592 |