Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago....
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:ouQpsIYBdbrxVwz67WTA 2023-05-15T13:55:28+02:00 Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey Horton, Benjamin P. Khan, Nicole S. Cahill, Niamh Lee, Janice S. H. Shaw, Timothy A. Garner, Andra J. Kemp, Andrew C. Engelhart, Simon E. Rahmstorf, Stefan 2020 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/7541 https://doi.org/10.34657/6588 eng eng London : Springer Nature CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 3 (2020), Nr. 1 Sea-level rise projections global mean sea-level (GMSL) climate change 333.7 530 article Text 2020 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/6588 2023-03-06T00:17:19Z Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. © 2020, The Author(s). publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Antarctic The Antarctic |
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Open Polar |
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LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
Sea-level rise projections global mean sea-level (GMSL) climate change 333.7 530 |
spellingShingle |
Sea-level rise projections global mean sea-level (GMSL) climate change 333.7 530 Horton, Benjamin P. Khan, Nicole S. Cahill, Niamh Lee, Janice S. H. Shaw, Timothy A. Garner, Andra J. Kemp, Andrew C. Engelhart, Simon E. Rahmstorf, Stefan Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey |
topic_facet |
Sea-level rise projections global mean sea-level (GMSL) climate change 333.7 530 |
description |
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. © 2020, The Author(s). publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Horton, Benjamin P. Khan, Nicole S. Cahill, Niamh Lee, Janice S. H. Shaw, Timothy A. Garner, Andra J. Kemp, Andrew C. Engelhart, Simon E. Rahmstorf, Stefan |
author_facet |
Horton, Benjamin P. Khan, Nicole S. Cahill, Niamh Lee, Janice S. H. Shaw, Timothy A. Garner, Andra J. Kemp, Andrew C. Engelhart, Simon E. Rahmstorf, Stefan |
author_sort |
Horton, Benjamin P. |
title |
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey |
title_short |
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey |
title_full |
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey |
title_fullStr |
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey |
title_sort |
estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey |
publisher |
London : Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/7541 https://doi.org/10.34657/6588 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 3 (2020), Nr. 1 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/6588 |
_version_ |
1766262138085572608 |