Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, a...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:kJNR04kBdbrxVwz68gcn 2023-10-01T03:53:45+02:00 Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher P. O. Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim Tian, Hanqin 2020 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10256 https://doi.org/10.34657/9292 eng eng Bristol : IOP Publ. CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Environmental Research Letters 15 (2020), Nr. 4 Biome sector Climatic impacts ISIMIP2b Northern high latitudes Paris agreement 590 article Text 2020 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/9292 2023-09-03T23:17:36Z Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
Biome sector Climatic impacts ISIMIP2b Northern high latitudes Paris agreement 590 |
spellingShingle |
Biome sector Climatic impacts ISIMIP2b Northern high latitudes Paris agreement 590 Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher P. O. Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim Tian, Hanqin Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
topic_facet |
Biome sector Climatic impacts ISIMIP2b Northern high latitudes Paris agreement 590 |
description |
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher P. O. Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim Tian, Hanqin |
author_facet |
Ito, Akihiko Reyer, Christopher P. O. Gädeke, Anne Ciais, Philippe Chang, Jinfeng Chen, Min François, Louis Forrest, Matthew Hickler, Thomas Ostberg, Sebastian Shi, Hao Thiery, Wim Tian, Hanqin |
author_sort |
Ito, Akihiko |
title |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_short |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_full |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_fullStr |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_sort |
pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
publisher |
Bristol : IOP Publ. |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10256 https://doi.org/10.34657/9292 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters 15 (2020), Nr. 4 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/9292 |
_version_ |
1778520582186336256 |