A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives
Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results o...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:ge9q6YoBg80Wlv18N3FL 2023-10-29T02:36:47+01:00 A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha Ghil, Michael 2017 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.34657/718 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/651 eng eng München : European Geopyhsical Union CC BY 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Climate of the Past, Volume 13, Issue 9, Page 1169-1180 Bayesian analysis core analysis error analysis GRIP historical record lacustrine deposit Last Glacial oxygen isotope oxygen isotope ratio paleoclimate probability proxy climate record radiocarbon dating time series uncertainty analysis 550 article Text 2017 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/718 2023-10-01T23:11:33Z Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records – such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings – as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5–52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project GRIP ice core NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
Bayesian analysis core analysis error analysis GRIP historical record lacustrine deposit Last Glacial oxygen isotope oxygen isotope ratio paleoclimate probability proxy climate record radiocarbon dating time series uncertainty analysis 550 |
spellingShingle |
Bayesian analysis core analysis error analysis GRIP historical record lacustrine deposit Last Glacial oxygen isotope oxygen isotope ratio paleoclimate probability proxy climate record radiocarbon dating time series uncertainty analysis 550 Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha Ghil, Michael A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
topic_facet |
Bayesian analysis core analysis error analysis GRIP historical record lacustrine deposit Last Glacial oxygen isotope oxygen isotope ratio paleoclimate probability proxy climate record radiocarbon dating time series uncertainty analysis 550 |
description |
Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records – such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings – as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5–52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha Ghil, Michael |
author_facet |
Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha Ghil, Michael |
author_sort |
Boers, Niklas |
title |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_short |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_full |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_fullStr |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_full_unstemmed |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_sort |
complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
publisher |
München : European Geopyhsical Union |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.34657/718 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/651 |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project GRIP ice core NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project GRIP ice core NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Volume 13, Issue 9, Page 1169-1180 |
op_rights |
CC BY 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/718 |
_version_ |
1781060897579466752 |