Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st...
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Göttingen : Copernicus Publ.
2020
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Online Access: | https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/6932 https://doi.org/10.34657/5979 |
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:_h6CMYsBBwLIz6xGYBbJ 2023-11-12T04:06:51+01:00 Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) Levermann, Anders Winkelmann, Ricarda Albrecht, Torsten Goelzer, Heiko Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Huybrechts, Philippe Jordan, Jim Leguy, Gunter Martin, Daniel Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pollard, David Quiquet, Aurelien Rodehacke, Christian Seroussi, Helene Sutter, Johannes Zhang, Tong Van Breedam, Jonas Calov, Reinhard DeConto, Robert Dumas, Christophe Garbe, Julius Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Kleiner, Thomas Lipscomb, William H. Meinshausen, Malte Ng, Esmond Nowicki, Sophie M.J. Perego, Mauro Price, Stephen F. Saito, Fuyuki Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Sun, Sainan van de Wal, Roderik S.W. 2020 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/6932 https://doi.org/10.34657/5979 eng eng Göttingen : Copernicus Publ. CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Earth System Dynamics : ESD 11 (2020), Nr. 1 Atmospheric movements Climate models Computation theory Glacial geology Glaciers Global warming Melting Sea level Uncertainty analysis Antarctic ice sheets Global mean sea levels Global sea level rise Global-mean temperature Internal instability Linear response functions Linear-response theory Structural uncertainty Ice basal ice basal melting CMIP global ocean ice sheet ice shelf sea level change Antarctica Southern Ocean 550 article Text 2020 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/5979 2023-10-15T23:36:21Z The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Southern Ocean Unknown Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric movements Climate models Computation theory Glacial geology Glaciers Global warming Melting Sea level Uncertainty analysis Antarctic ice sheets Global mean sea levels Global sea level rise Global-mean temperature Internal instability Linear response functions Linear-response theory Structural uncertainty Ice basal ice basal melting CMIP global ocean ice sheet ice shelf sea level change Antarctica Southern Ocean 550 |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric movements Climate models Computation theory Glacial geology Glaciers Global warming Melting Sea level Uncertainty analysis Antarctic ice sheets Global mean sea levels Global sea level rise Global-mean temperature Internal instability Linear response functions Linear-response theory Structural uncertainty Ice basal ice basal melting CMIP global ocean ice sheet ice shelf sea level change Antarctica Southern Ocean 550 Levermann, Anders Winkelmann, Ricarda Albrecht, Torsten Goelzer, Heiko Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Huybrechts, Philippe Jordan, Jim Leguy, Gunter Martin, Daniel Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pollard, David Quiquet, Aurelien Rodehacke, Christian Seroussi, Helene Sutter, Johannes Zhang, Tong Van Breedam, Jonas Calov, Reinhard DeConto, Robert Dumas, Christophe Garbe, Julius Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Kleiner, Thomas Lipscomb, William H. Meinshausen, Malte Ng, Esmond Nowicki, Sophie M.J. Perego, Mauro Price, Stephen F. Saito, Fuyuki Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Sun, Sainan van de Wal, Roderik S.W. Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric movements Climate models Computation theory Glacial geology Glaciers Global warming Melting Sea level Uncertainty analysis Antarctic ice sheets Global mean sea levels Global sea level rise Global-mean temperature Internal instability Linear response functions Linear-response theory Structural uncertainty Ice basal ice basal melting CMIP global ocean ice sheet ice shelf sea level change Antarctica Southern Ocean 550 |
description |
The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Levermann, Anders Winkelmann, Ricarda Albrecht, Torsten Goelzer, Heiko Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Huybrechts, Philippe Jordan, Jim Leguy, Gunter Martin, Daniel Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pollard, David Quiquet, Aurelien Rodehacke, Christian Seroussi, Helene Sutter, Johannes Zhang, Tong Van Breedam, Jonas Calov, Reinhard DeConto, Robert Dumas, Christophe Garbe, Julius Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Kleiner, Thomas Lipscomb, William H. Meinshausen, Malte Ng, Esmond Nowicki, Sophie M.J. Perego, Mauro Price, Stephen F. Saito, Fuyuki Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Sun, Sainan van de Wal, Roderik S.W. |
author_facet |
Levermann, Anders Winkelmann, Ricarda Albrecht, Torsten Goelzer, Heiko Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Huybrechts, Philippe Jordan, Jim Leguy, Gunter Martin, Daniel Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pollard, David Quiquet, Aurelien Rodehacke, Christian Seroussi, Helene Sutter, Johannes Zhang, Tong Van Breedam, Jonas Calov, Reinhard DeConto, Robert Dumas, Christophe Garbe, Julius Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Kleiner, Thomas Lipscomb, William H. Meinshausen, Malte Ng, Esmond Nowicki, Sophie M.J. Perego, Mauro Price, Stephen F. Saito, Fuyuki Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Sun, Sainan van de Wal, Roderik S.W. |
author_sort |
Levermann, Anders |
title |
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) |
title_short |
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) |
title_full |
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) |
title_fullStr |
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) |
title_sort |
projecting antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (larmip-2) |
publisher |
Göttingen : Copernicus Publ. |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/6932 https://doi.org/10.34657/5979 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics : ESD 11 (2020), Nr. 1 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/5979 |
_version_ |
1782327793773707264 |