A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties
Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjus...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:XDA874cBdbrxVwz6u7mG 2023-06-11T04:12:22+02:00 A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties Perrette, M. Landerer, F. Riva, R. Frieler, K. Meinshausen, M. 2013 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.34657/154 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/3787 eng eng München : European Geopyhsical Union CC BY 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Earth System Dynamics, Volume 4, Issue 1, Page 11-29 Adaptation to climate changes General circulation model Global mean sea levels Infrastructure planning North-Western Atlantic Northeastern Atlantic Probabilistic forecasts Regional sea level changes 500 article Text 2013 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/154 2023-05-07T23:28:59Z Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR) remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011). Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6) with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%). Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Greenland Pacific Indian |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
Adaptation to climate changes General circulation model Global mean sea levels Infrastructure planning North-Western Atlantic Northeastern Atlantic Probabilistic forecasts Regional sea level changes 500 |
spellingShingle |
Adaptation to climate changes General circulation model Global mean sea levels Infrastructure planning North-Western Atlantic Northeastern Atlantic Probabilistic forecasts Regional sea level changes 500 Perrette, M. Landerer, F. Riva, R. Frieler, K. Meinshausen, M. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties |
topic_facet |
Adaptation to climate changes General circulation model Global mean sea levels Infrastructure planning North-Western Atlantic Northeastern Atlantic Probabilistic forecasts Regional sea level changes 500 |
description |
Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR) remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011). Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6) with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%). Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Perrette, M. Landerer, F. Riva, R. Frieler, K. Meinshausen, M. |
author_facet |
Perrette, M. Landerer, F. Riva, R. Frieler, K. Meinshausen, M. |
author_sort |
Perrette, M. |
title |
A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties |
title_short |
A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties |
title_full |
A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties |
title_sort |
scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties |
publisher |
München : European Geopyhsical Union |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.34657/154 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/3787 |
geographic |
Greenland Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Pacific Indian |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Volume 4, Issue 1, Page 11-29 |
op_rights |
CC BY 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/154 |
_version_ |
1768388148251852800 |