The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is cros...
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2021
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:VS_SeYsBBwLIz6xGDuLZ 2023-11-12T04:00:50+01:00 The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. De Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda 2021-3-25 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10581 https://doi.org/10.34657/9617 eng eng Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Cryosphere : TC 15 (2021), Nr. 3 coastal zone management collapse glacier dynamics glacier mass balance global warming ice flow ice sheet sea ice sea level change Amundsen Sea Antarctic Ice Sheet Antarctica Pine Island Glacier Southern Ocean Thwaites Glacier West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica 910 article Text 2021 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/9617 2023-10-30T00:18:33Z Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustaining retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators in model simulations robustly detect the onset of the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 ∘C from the steady-state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica Unknown |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
coastal zone management collapse glacier dynamics glacier mass balance global warming ice flow ice sheet sea ice sea level change Amundsen Sea Antarctic Ice Sheet Antarctica Pine Island Glacier Southern Ocean Thwaites Glacier West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica 910 |
spellingShingle |
coastal zone management collapse glacier dynamics glacier mass balance global warming ice flow ice sheet sea ice sea level change Amundsen Sea Antarctic Ice Sheet Antarctica Pine Island Glacier Southern Ocean Thwaites Glacier West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica 910 Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. De Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
topic_facet |
coastal zone management collapse glacier dynamics glacier mass balance global warming ice flow ice sheet sea ice sea level change Amundsen Sea Antarctic Ice Sheet Antarctica Pine Island Glacier Southern Ocean Thwaites Glacier West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica 910 |
description |
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustaining retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators in model simulations robustly detect the onset of the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 ∘C from the steady-state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. De Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_facet |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. De Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Rosier, Sebastian H. R. |
title |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_short |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_sort |
tipping points and early warning indicators for pine island glacier, west antarctica |
publisher |
Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10581 https://doi.org/10.34657/9617 |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica |
op_source |
The Cryosphere : TC 15 (2021), Nr. 3 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/9617 |
_version_ |
1782328884269678592 |