Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast
In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommeltype box model to emulate the output of fully coupled threedimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Mo...
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ftleibnizopen:oai:oai.leibnizopen.de:UA4yZIcBdbrxVwz6QMyB 2023-05-15T16:21:30+02:00 Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast Schleussner, C.F. Frieler, K. Meinshausen, M. Yin, J. Levermann, A. 2011 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.34657/249 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/3823 eng eng München : European Geopyhsical Union CC BY 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Earth System Dynamics, Volume 2, Issue 2, Page 191-200 Atlantic meridional overturning circulations Box models Circulation models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project East coast Fully-coupled Global-mean temperature Greenland Low emission Lower bounds Melt water Multi-model New York City North American Probabilistic projections Sea level rise 500 article Text 2011 ftleibnizopen https://doi.org/10.34657/249 2023-04-09T23:28:03Z In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommeltype box model to emulate the output of fully coupled threedimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10 %, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LeibnizOpen (The Leibniz Association) |
op_collection_id |
ftleibnizopen |
language |
English |
topic |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulations Box models Circulation models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project East coast Fully-coupled Global-mean temperature Greenland Low emission Lower bounds Melt water Multi-model New York City North American Probabilistic projections Sea level rise 500 |
spellingShingle |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulations Box models Circulation models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project East coast Fully-coupled Global-mean temperature Greenland Low emission Lower bounds Melt water Multi-model New York City North American Probabilistic projections Sea level rise 500 Schleussner, C.F. Frieler, K. Meinshausen, M. Yin, J. Levermann, A. Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
topic_facet |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulations Box models Circulation models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project East coast Fully-coupled Global-mean temperature Greenland Low emission Lower bounds Melt water Multi-model New York City North American Probabilistic projections Sea level rise 500 |
description |
In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommeltype box model to emulate the output of fully coupled threedimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10 %, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schleussner, C.F. Frieler, K. Meinshausen, M. Yin, J. Levermann, A. |
author_facet |
Schleussner, C.F. Frieler, K. Meinshausen, M. Yin, J. Levermann, A. |
author_sort |
Schleussner, C.F. |
title |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_short |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_full |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_fullStr |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_full_unstemmed |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_sort |
emulating atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the north american east coast |
publisher |
München : European Geopyhsical Union |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.34657/249 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/3823 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Volume 2, Issue 2, Page 191-200 |
op_rights |
CC BY 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/249 |
_version_ |
1766009512886534144 |